What’s On the 2024 Ballot #4: State Legislative Races

This map depicts states according to whether their state legislatures are holding elections in 2024 and what partisan control looks like. See the key for explanation of colors. The map was created through MapChart.net template for the United States.

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This series of posts covers various marquee offices holding elections this year by office type: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governors, etc. Each post will include an overview of the office itself, some historical data when appropriate, what election forecasters have to say (if applicable), and key races to watch out for.

This week looks at state legislative races, in which thousands of contests are going to be decided in 85 state legislative chambers across 44 states.

An Overview of State Legislatures

Just as there is a federal legislature (Congress), each state has their own legislature in their state government. These state legislatures write laws specific to their state.

In 49 states, state legislatures are bicameral like Congress is — that is, they have a house and a senate. The exception to this is Nebraska, which became unicameral in the 1930s. (It also became nominally nonpartisan around that same time, the only state legislature to do so, though in reality most or all legislators identify with the Republican or Democratic Parties. These affiliations are tracked by some organizations such as Ballotpedia.)

In most cases, states will have at least some state legislative elections every even-numbered year, though this is not always the case.

• Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, and Mississippi elect all their state legislators every four years.
• Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia elect all their state legislators in odd-numbered years.

Almost every state house representative has two-year terms, the exceptions being four-year terms for Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, and North Dakota representatives. For state senators, it’s a little bit more complex.

• Thirty (30) state senates have four-year terms.
• Twelve (12) state senates have two-year terms.
• Eight (8) state senates use some form of what’s called a 2–4–4 system. Due to redistricting from the U.S. Census every decade, these state senates will have some or all of their members hold two-year terms after redistricting followed by a couple four-year terms. How each state decides the method of their 2–4–4 system can differ greatly.

In terms of partisanship, Ballotpedia gives us the following information as of May 1, 2024:

• Of 1,973 total state senators, there are 847 Democrats, 1,115 Republicans, four third-party or non-affiliated members, and seven vacancies.
• Of 5,413 total state representatives, there are 2,432 Democrats, 2,947 Republicans, 19 third-party or non-affiliated members, and 15 vacancies.
• There are Republican majorities in 56 chambers and Democratic majorities in 41 chambers. (One of these Republican majorities is in the nominally nonpartisan Nebraska State Senate. The Alaska State House and State Senate have unusual power-sharing agreements between a combination of Republicans, Democrats, and independents.)

Recent Historical Elections for this Year’s State Legislative Races

As part of the Tea Party Republican wave in the 2010 election, a significant number of state legislative chambers flipped to Republican control. Since then, Republicans have had a sizable advantage in chambers they control versus Democrats, as seen in the following visual from this Ballotpedia page.

Presidential election years are most comparable to previous presidential elections. They have the highest turnout rates, see the most similar kinds of voters that turn out, and have most or all of the same offices elected compared to other types of election times like midterms and odd-year elections. (It isn’t that you cannot compare presidential elections to those in other years at all, but such comparisons must be taken with a grain of salt.)

So, let’s look at the last three presidential elections and how many state legislative chambers each party controlled before and after the election.

• 2012: Democrat Barack Obama won his second presidential term. Democrats went from controlling 35 to 41 state legislative chambers and Republicans went from controlling 60 to 56 chambers.
• 2016: Republican Donald Trump won the presidency. Republicans controlled the same number of state legislative chambers at 68 and Democrats went from controlling 30 to 31 chambers.
• 2020: Democrat Joe Biden won the presidency. Democrats went from controlling 39 to 37 state legislative chambers and Republicans went from controlling 59 to 61 chambers.

It’s interesting to note that in the last two presidential elections, the winning presidential candidate’s party either controlled the same number of state legislative chambers (Trump) as after the election or lost a couple chambers (Biden). They didn’t have anything resembling a wave of new majorities in chambers for their respective parties. (Obama’s Democrats did take majorities in six more chambers in his reelection, but they would then lose 11 of them in the 2014 midterm.)

Also, the last two presidents, Obama and Trump, had a net loss of seats in their first (or in Trump’s case, only) term. As Ballotpedia shows, Obama’s Democrats lost 598 seats in his first four years while Trump’s Republicans lost 187 seats in his four years.

Legislative Seats Up For Election in 2024

Below are charts showing each legislative chamber holding elections this year and which party controls them. Even though Alaska technically has Republican majorities in both chambers, the power-sharing agreements mean that majority control is split. And although Nebraska is theoretically nonpartisan, majority control is considered Republican due to the political leanings of the state’s legislators.

Here are some explanations for other data in these tables. Numbers are as of May 23, 2024.

• Total Chamber Partisanship: These show the partisan affiliations of all seats in each chamber. Third parties, nonparty affiliates, and vacancies are lumped into a single category in purple.
• Partisanship of Seats for Election: Most of these chambers are holding elections for all their seats, but there are some chambers that are doing so for only half their seats. Instances where it is only half the seats, and the party affiliation of those seats are shaded in gray.
• Seats Needed to Flip Majority: These statistics indicate how much of a climb the minority party would have to take majority control. The “#” column shows the minority party and the number of seats they need to gain majority control. The “%” column shows the proportion of total seats in the chamber they need to gain. (These numbers assume that neither party would be losing any more of the seats they already have.) For example, Arkansas Senate Democrats would need a net gain of 12 (34.3%) seats in the 35-member chamber to take the majority from Senate Republicans.

These charts show how proportionally lopsided many of these legislative chambers are in terms of partisan control. In some chambers, Democrats can’t even remotely try to challenge Republican policies, or Republicans can’t even remotely try to challenge Democratic policies.

Here are the ranges of proportions of seats the minority party would need to gain to take majority control and how many chambers fit into each category:

• Below 10.0%: 10 chambers
• 10.0%+ but below 20.0%: 30 chambers
• 20.0%+ but below 30.0%: 16 chambers
• 30.0%+ but below 40.0%: 20 chambers
• 40.0%+: 9 chambers

On one end, you have the tightly contested Alaska House (3.3%), Alaska Senate (6.7%), and Georgia House (7.2%). On the other end, you have the Wyoming House (43.5%), West Virginia Senate (44.1%), Wyoming Senate (45.2%) dominated by one party.

Keep in mind, however, the vast differences in size of state legislative chambers. State senate memberships range from 20 in Alaska to 67 in Minnesota. State house memberships range from 40 in Alaska to 400 in New Hampshire, though Pennsylvania is second with 203. That matters because different sizes impact how proportionally small a minority party might seem. For example, Alaska Senate Democrats need a net gain of at least 10% of seats to take the partisan majority, but there are only 20 seats. That 10% translates to a gain of two (2) seats.

What Do Election Forecasters Have to Say?

Due in large part to the sheer overall number of seats in state legislatures being elected, you don’t often see election predictions regarding them. They also get a lot less media coverage and lower voter turnout than federal or gubernatorial elections. One of the few forecasters that do make these forecasts is CNalysis, who appeared in my editions of this series on the U.S. Senate and U.S. House. But even they do not currently have predictions for all of the chambers holding elections.

Ballotpedia has had something similar with their content on trifecta vulnerabilities in previous elections. Trifectas describe states were the governorship and majorities in both state legislative chambers are controlled by the same party. It’s not quite a forecast in the same sense that, say, The Cook Political Report makes for federal-level contests, but it is a similar concept, and state legislative races are inherently are part of those trifecta vulnerabilities.

Ballotpedia does not have such an analysis yet for the 2024 elections, however. So, we’ll just use CNalysis predictions here. Since it’s the only forecaster we are using this time, we don’t have to worry about comparing the terminology to other forecasters. But to make it easier to follow, I will change the phrasing CNalysis uses to numerical levels, similar to previous editions of this series. The higher the level, the greater the favored party’s advantage is.

• Tossup: Level 0
• Tilt D/R: Level 1
• Lean D/R: Level 2
• Likely D/R: Level 3
• Very Likely D/R: Level 4
• Solid D/R: Level 5

I’m also going to throw in a few of my own predictions that I am confident in from the get-go if CNalysis does not have a projection for that chamber yet. These will simply say the party I think will win the majority and are shaded in light orange. I will explain my immediate reasons for doing so following this chart, which shows a combination of projections by CNalysis and myself.

What sticks out from CNalysis’ forecasts the most is the lack of competitive chambers. Of the 50 chambers that they currently have a projection for, only 11 of them are projected to be below Level 5 for either party. Of the 39 chambers that have Level 5 projections, only four of them are for Democrats. A large part of that is because of huge partisan majorities for one party or the other — there are just too many seats the minority party would have to win to become the majority party. Right now, only four chambers have a Level 0, 1, or 2 rating.

As for my predictions I added, here are the immediate reasons for why I see them the way I do:

• Connecticut: While I’m a bit less confident in this prediction compared to the others listed here, I’m still sure that both of Connecticut’s state legislative chambers will stay Democratic. Republicans did make some inroads in the state house in 2010, 2014, and 2016, and in the state senate in 2016 (when they tied Democrats 18–18 in legislators), but other than those the state legislature has had a noticeably Democratic lean in the last 15 years. Those gains Republicans made in 2016 were short-lived as Democrats gained even more seats in 2018 than they lost in the 2016 election. Right now, I think there are too many seats Republicans would have to gain to become the majority party in either chamber.
• Florida: This one I can speak to best because it is my home state. Both chambers of the state legislature have been Republican majorities since the mid-1990s and their advantage in both is the largest it has ever been for Florida Republicans. The Democratic Party of Florida has struggled in turning out its voters over the past 25 years. And to make matters worse for them, the registered voter advantage for Florida Republicans has skyrocketed to 850,000 voters. Conveniently, the Florida Department of Elections also shows voter registration numbers by state house and state senate districts, and they further demonstrate just how big a hole Florida Democrats have to climb out of for the state legislature.
• Hawaii: Republicans are like an endangered species in The Aloha State. They rarely win elections for state-level government offices. Right now, only two of 25 state senate and six of 51 state house seats belong to GOP legislators. That’s far too much ground for Republicans to make up: There is no way they can win 11 senate seats and 20 hour seats to flip the chambers’ partisan majorities.
• Massachusetts: Massachusetts is one of the most Democratic states in the country. While it did pick Republican Charlie Baker for governor in 2014 and 2018 — handily so in the latter — he and then-Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito were exceptions, not the rule. The Massachusetts state legislature is one of the most proportionally lopsided partisan majorities in the country — only 25 of 160 state house and three of 40 state senate seats are held by GOP legislators. As a result, Republicans would have to gain 56 (35.0%) house seats and 17 (42.5%) senate seats to flip majority control, and that’s not going to happen.
• South Dakota: The Mount Rushmore State is one of the most Republican states in the country. Only four of 35 state senate and seven of 70 state house seats are held by Democrats. They haven’t won a senate majority since 1992 and a house majority since 1934 (though they did tie Republicans at 35–35 in 1972). Democrats would need to gain 40.0% of state senate seats and 41.4% of state house seats to take majority control, and that’s not going to happen, either.
• Tennessee: Tennessee was one of the southern states that was mainly Democratic until the 2000s. Now it’s a Republican bastion, and it’s become more so over time. Only six of the 33 state senate and 24 of the 99 state house seats are held by Democratic legislators. There has been no indication of a Democratic wave coming for the state level of government in Tennessee, so it’s going to stay firmly Republican for both chambers for the foreseeable future.
• Wyoming: Wyoming is practically the anti-Hawaii — instead, it is the Democrats that are like an endangered species there. Only two of 30 state senate and five of 62 state house seats belong to Democratic legislators. Both the state house and senate are two of the four most proportionally lopsided legislative chambers in the country, as seen from the charts above in the section “Legislative Seats Up For Election in 2024.” These may be the most unlikely chambers to flip partisan majorities.

Key Chambers to Watch

With over 5,800 state legislative elections this year, it’s impossible to go over all of them (and it would be incredibly cumbersome for you to read anyway). So, instead of key individual seats having elections, let’s look at key individual chambers as a whole.

A lot of state legislative chambers are highly or overwhelmingly Republican or Democratic, but there are some chambers with much closer partisan divides to look out for. There is a real chance for them to flip partisan control. The most likely to do so include the following:

Alaska (House and Senate)

The peculiarity of Alaska’s power-sharing agreements within the state’s two legislative chambers means the current split control could be tenuous depending on how 2024 plays out. But for the sake of simplicity, we are going to assume that there will be no such agreement after the 2024 elections and that Democrats need a numerical majority to hold onto power.

Alaska Democrats haven’t won a majority in the house since the 1992 election or in the senate since the 1980 election. (They did, however, split senate representation with Republicans 10–10 in the 1990, 2008, and 2010 elections). In the 2022 elections, Alaska Democrats lost two seats in the house but gained two seats in the senate. It’s possible that we see a Republican house and a Democratic senate (or at least a 10–10 tie in the latter chamber).

Arizona (House and Senate)

No overall state legislature is as closely divided on party lines as in Arizona. Republicans have the thinnest of margins in their majority control in both chambers: Democrats only need to win one seat each in the house and senate to tie Republicans and two in each chamber to take a partisan majority. It’s one of the biggest reasons for CNalysis rating both chambers as Level 0 (toss-up) contests for majority control.

Arizona Democrats have made inroads in statewide elections recently, including winning the governorship, secretary of state, and attorney general in 2022; U.S. Senate seats in 2018, 2020 (special election), and 2022; and the state’s Electoral College votes for Joe Biden in 2020. However, they haven’t won a state house majority since 1964 and a state senate majority since 1990. The 2024 election may break both of those streaks.

Michigan (House)

The Michigan State House is controlled by a razor-thin majority: There are 56 Democrats and 54 Republicans. (Democrats also have an incredibly close 20–18 majority in the state senate, but that chamber is not having elections this year.) So, Michigan Republicans only need to win two state house seats to take back majority control.

The Michigan State House has been a bit more susceptible to partisan flips in recent memory than most state legislative chambers. Majority control flipped Democratic in 2006, then Republican in 2010, then Democratic again in 2022. It’s quite possible we see it flip back to Republicans in the 2024 election. The presidential election rematch between Trump and Biden is almost certainly going to majorly impact that one way or another.

Minnesota (House)

In statewide races, Minnesota has a definitively blue leaning. It’s voted Democratic for president every time from 1976 to the present. It’s voted for a Democratic governor the last four times (2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022). And to top things off, all of the state’s elected state executive offices — lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and auditor — have all been won by Democrats since at least 2014.

But the state legislature is a somewhat different story. Currently, Minnesota Democrats have a 70–64 majority in the state house. Yet Republicans won majorities in the 2010, 2014, and 2016 elections. (Republicans have also had recent majorities in the state senate and are only a 34–33 minority there, but that chamber is not having elections this year.) At first glance, I’d say the chamber is a Level 1 contest favoring Democrats, as there is probably slightly more going their way, but Republicans could certainly take the majority after the 2024 election.

Pennsylvania (House)

This is the thinnest partisan margin of all: One seat currently separates the Democratic majority and the Republican minority (102–101). Pennsylvania Democrats hadn’t won a majority in the state house since 2008 and they hit a trough in the 2016 election (82 Democrats to 121 Republicans), but they’ve come storming back in the years since to barely take a majority. Currently, CNalysis rates it as a Level 1 chamber favoring Democrats.

The Pennsylvania State Senate is also having elections, but it’s a lot less likely to flip partisan control than the state house. Apart from the 1992 election where the parties split representation in there at 25–25, Republicans have won a majority of the state senate from 1980 election to the present. Right now, they have a 28–22 majority in that chamber. It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility (CNalysis ranks it as a Level 3 chamber favoring Republicans) that is flips partisan control. But there is more reason to watch the state house given the margins there.

Possibilities for State Legislative Races in 2024

It’s just about a certainty that Republicans will continue to hold majority control in more state legislative chambers than Democrats will after the 2024 election dust settles. Whether Republicans will gain or lose some chambers, however, remains to be seen. Both parties have vulnerable majorities in several states.

• Particularly vulnerable Republican majorities include Alaska’s senate and Arizona’s house and senate.
• Particularly vulnerable Democratic majorities include the houses of Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

There are also some chambers that are less likely to flip partisan control, but still have a reasonable chance of doing so. Republicans could take the state houses in Maine, Nevada, or Oregon. Democrats could take the state house in Georgia, New Hampshire, or Wisconsin.

A lot of state legislative chambers are a done deal as to which party will control them. But there are enough of them in play for a flip in partisan majority that we could see some real electoral fireworks in the 2024 races.