What’s On the 2024 Ballot #2: U.S. House Races
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This series of posts covers various marquee offices holding elections this year by office type: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governors, etc. Each post will include an overview of the office itself, some historical data when appropriate, what election forecasters have to say (if applicable), and key races to watch out for.
This week looks at the U.S. House, where a shift of only a few seats can decide which party gains majority control of the chamber.
An Overview of the U.S. House
The U.S. House is the lower chamber of Congress (the upper chamber being the U.S. Senate). There are 435 seats, and each one of them is up for election every two years. As with the U.S. Senate, the partisan divide is tight in the U.S. House, though in the latter it is the Republican Party that has control. As of May 9, 2024, there are 217 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and five vacancies.
Below is a chart showing the delegations of each state, splitting states into majority Democratic delegations, majority Republican delegations, and evenly split delegations.
Democrats have the majority in 22 states, Republicans have the majority in 26 states, and Minnesota and North Carolina’s delegations are evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. Lesser populated states aside, most states’ delegations are pretty lopsided toward one party or the other.
Closely divided states that slightly favor one party include Michigan and Pennsylvania, in which Democrats have a one-member advantage. Of course, each district has different political contexts with different levels of competitiveness, so it’s not like we can’t possibly see some of these large partisan divides become closer. But in terms of delegations that might see a flip in majority party status in 2024, the most likely ones are Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Recent Historical Elections for the U.S. House
Since all seats in the U.S. House are up for election every even-numbered year, that means their elections happen in both midterm election years (e.g., 2022) and presidential election years (e.g., 2024). When you compare midterm and presidential election results for the U.S. House, there is a stark contrast in the fortunes of the president’s party.
Here are the net gains/losses in the winning presidential candidate’s party’s seats for the U.S. House in the last six presidential election years. The data comes from the American Presidency Project.
With the exception of Barack Obama’s victory in 2008, the winning presidential candidate’s party has had mixed success in presidential election years. In fact, in the last two times, the winning candidate’s party actually had a net loss of seats. Those two candidates, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, are now facing each other in a rematch. On average the last six presidential elections, the winning candidate’s party has only gained two seats in the U.S. House.
Now, let’s look at the last six midterm elections.
Midterm elections have been ruthless to the sitting president’s party. In the last five midterms, the sitting president’s party has lost seats in the U.S. House, four of those times by double digits. On average the last six midterms, the sitting president’s party has lost 25 seats in the chamber.
Finally, let’s look at the change in winning/sitting president’s party’s seats for the last six federal elections overall, both presidential and midterm.
You can see how recent U.S. House elections in general have gone poorly for the president’s party. They’ve had a net loss in seats in each of the last five elections: Barack Obama in his second midterm election, Donald Trump in both his 2016 victory and his midterm election, and Joe Biden in his 2020 victory and his midterm election.
Since this year is a presidential election, previous presidential years are more comparable to this election than midterms are. That’s because midterms and presidential years see much different rates of turnout. Those who vote in midterm elections are very likely to vote in presidential elections, but many presidential election voters don’t participate in midterms. In other words, presidential general elections see the highest rates of turnout overall.
What Do Election Forecasters Have to Say?
If you read my piece previewing the U.S. Senate, this part is going to look familiar to you. For predictions, we are going to look at five election forecasters: The Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, CNalysis, and Split Ticket. Ratings are as of May 9, 2024.
Each forecaster has their own internal criteria for how they rate elections, so they won’t fully agree, but you won’t see a whole lot of deviation from each other. They don’t all have the same terminology either. For example, Cook, Inside, and CNalysis use the term “Solid” while Sabato and Split Ticket use the term “Safe.”
For the most part, these forecasters have seven levels of ranking. But Inside Elections and CNalysis use more than that. So, for those rankings, I’m going to lump their “Tilt D/R” elections with toss-ups (though I will note the number of “Tilt” elections separately with an asterisk). CNalysis also has a “Very Likely” ranking, which I will group with “Likely” rankings in the same category (and note separately with an asterisk). The term “Toss-up” is used across the board but we will rename that, too.
Therefore, for easy comparison, we are going to rename their categories so we can lump them together. It isn’t a perfect system, but this is simply meant to make it easier for readers to put each forecaster’s ratings side-by-side. Below is the terminology I will use and which rankings from each forecaster correspond to said terminology. The higher the level, the less competitive a seat is.
Below is how many seats each of these forecasters rates by level.
You can see how there is a fair bit of difference between the forecasters as to how competitive each seat is. For example, they all have different numbers of seats that they see as a certainty to be won by a Democrat or certainty to be won by a Republican (Level 3). The number of Level 3 Democratic seats ranges from 173 to 180 and the number of Level 3 Republican seats ranges from 184 to 192.
Any way you cut it, though, control of the U.S. House is expected to be tight. Here are the numbers of seats that each forecaster sees as at least a bit competitive but favoring one party or the other, meaning Levels 1 and 2 (or in the case of Inside Elections and CNalysis, Level 0 ratings that ever so slightly tilt toward one party):
- Cook: 30 for Democrats and 18 for Republicans
- Sabato: 32 for Democrats and 21 for Republicans
- Inside: 34 for Democrats and 28 for Republicans
- CNalysis: 32 for Democrats and 25 for Republicans
- Split Ticket: 28 for Democrats and 20 for Republicans
Key Races to Watch
Due to the sheer number of U.S. House races up for grabs, there are too many to list here that are worth watching. But here are some particularly noteworthy races to look out for and why.
Arizona’s 1st and 6th Districts
Incumbent Republicans David Schweikert (1st) and Juan Ciscomani (6th) are expected to have tight races this November. Schweikert’s margin of victory has been decreasing each year since 2012 (especially since 2016), and he only won by 0.8 percentage points in his 2022 re-election that followed redistricting. Ciscomani won his first election in 2022 by 1.5 points and is likely heading for a rematch with Democrat Kirsten Engel.
And with the Trump vs. Biden rematch happening simultaneously, how the 1st and 6th congressional district elections in Arizona play out will likely have a significant impact on whether Trump or Biden win the state and vice versa. All five of the above forecasters rate these contests at Level 0.
Michigan’s 7th and 8th Districts
Incumbent Democrats Elissa Slotkin (7th) and Dan Kildee (8th) are not running for re-election: Slotkin is running for the U.S. Senate and Kildee is retiring. Thus, these are open seats for 2024, and there is no incumbency advantage. Incumbents tend to have an advantage in name recognition, an existing campaign apparatus, and more robust donor and community connections. So, they tend to win reelection at very high rates.
Michigan is another battleground state for the presidential election, so the U.S. House elections and the presidential contest will likely have reciprocal effects on each other in the state. The five forecasters in this article are mostly unanimous in rating these contests at Level 0 — the exception is that Split Ticket feels much more confident about Kildee’s seat staying with Democrats, rating the 8th district as a Level 2 race.
Nebraska’s 2nd district
Nebraska and Maine are unique in presidential races in that they are not winner-take-all states in Electoral College votes. Two Electoral Votes are awarded to the president that wins the state’s overall popular vote, plus each of their congressional districts give an Electoral Vote to the presidential candidate that wins that district’s popular vote. For Nebraska’s 2nd district, not only is the Electoral Vote up for grabs (and could possibly help decide the outcome for president in 2024) but the presidential race will likely impact who wins that district’s U.S. House race, and vice versa.
Republican Don Bacon has been the district’s congressman since 2016, winning each race by no more than 4.6 percentage points each time. He’s likely in for another close contest: The five forecasters have the contest as a Level 0 race (except for Cook, which sees it as a Level 1 race favoring Republicans).
North Carolina’s 1st District
Following redistricting, North Carolina’s 1st district became a closer contest. Previous congressman Democrat G.K. Butterfield was used to routing his competition by double digit points prior to 2020, when he then won by “only” 8.4 percentage points. He declined to seek reelection in 2022, and Democrat Donald Davis won his first term in Congress by 4.8 points.
Davis may be in for an even closer contest in 2024, as the five forecasters all rate his race as a full-on toss-up. His contest might also impact the outcome of North Carolina’s governor’s race that is also happening this year: Cook has that contest as a Level 1 race favoring Democrats, while both Sabato and Inside Elections see it as a toss-up.
Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th Districts
Like Arizona and Michigan, Pennsylvania is also a battleground state for the presidency. Also like Arizona and Michigan, two congressional district races in particular might make a difference in whether Biden or Trump win the state. The 7th district has been represented by Democrat Susan Wild since 2018 but each successive election has been a closer race, including a 2.0 point margin of victory in 2022. The 8th district has been very similar in those regards, with incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright winning reelection in 2022 by 2.4 points. The 8th district also contains part of Luzerne County, which was a pivot county that stuck with Trump in 2020.
For the most part, the five forecasters in this article see these races as toss-ups. Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections sees both as Level 0 races but slightly favoring Democrats, while CNalysis does so only for the 8th district.
Possibilities for the U.S. House in November 2024
It’s interesting to see that the winning/sitting president’s party has been pretty unsuccessful in U.S. House elections in each even year from 2014 onward, even in presidential election years. Neither Trump nor Biden experienced gains for their party in the chamber in their presidencies.
With how close the rematch between those two is supposed to be this year, it’s even more up-in-the-air how their parties are going to fare in 2024. It’s quite possible that Trump wins but the Republican Party has a net loss of seats where the Democratic Party take the majority in the U.S. House. It’s also quite possible that Biden wins but the Democratic Party has a net loss of seats and Republicans expand their majority in the chamber. Right now, it’s either party’s game.
CNalysis, in particular, has a percentage chance that one party or the other has control of the U.S. House following the 2024 election. They give the Republican Party a 52.2% chance of retaining the House majority, as shown below. Contrast that with the likelihood that CNalysis sees for the U.S. Senate majority to be taken by Republicans at 83.2% as of May 10, 2024.
It might seem odd to some readers that control of the U.S. House is so unpredictable given how much of the above map looks red. It’s a similar look for the Split Tickets map, which is shown below.
The reason, however, that the prospects for both parties are much more even than the maps might make it seem is that Republicans typically fare better in more rural districts, while Democrats typically fare better in more urban districts. Congressional districts are supposed to be roughly even in population. But rural districts tend to be geographically much larger since the populations are more spread out, while urban districts have denser populations in smaller geographical areas clustered around cities. Some examples can be seen in the Split Tickets map above such as the districts around Chicago, D.C., New York City, and San Francisco.
This election may be one of the most unpredictable yet in terms of how split or unified our federal government will be in terms of partisan affiliation. The U.S. Senate is very likely to become a Republican majority, but control of the U.S. House and the presidency is currently considerably competitive. Even with less than six months to go until the general election, the picture might not become that much clearer.
