When are (Non-Presidential) Elections a “Referendum” on an Incumbent President?
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A favorite pastime of political pundits, media, activists, and voters is speculating whether elections are a “referendum” on a sitting president. Almost without fail — and regardless of their party — any time a highly-covered non-presidential election day goes against the incumbent president’s interests, is it considered a referendum against him. Sometimes, there is an assumption that special elections could be predictive of what will happen in the next midterm or presidential election.
But oftentimes, we need to pump the brakes a bit. The media has to sell stories and sometimes overly hype up news about conflict and competition. Some people in the media, regardless of their political persuasion, are too quick to believe a given election means something substantial about voters’ opinions about the incumbent president. Others in the media know better, but they have to sell the story and get the ratings. News consumers are typically drawn to this kind of coverage.
That isn’t to say that none of the elections happening on non-presidential election days mean nothing for voters’ support of the president. We should, however, be more skeptical of stories touting elections as “referendums” on the chief executive. News media is arguably the most sensationalized its ever been (though sensationalism in news isn’t at all new). Then you must consider that biased news sources sometimes want to believe that these elections are indicative of support of sitting presidents. The likes of CNN and MSNBC jumped at any chance to claim a Republican loss was a referendum when Donald Trump was president. The likes of Fox News does the same thing when a Democrat loses an election during Joe Biden’s administration.
So, when can we consider an election a “referendum” on an incumbent president? Let’s go over the basic types of non-presidential elections based on when they occur: midterm, odd-year, and special elections.
Midterm Elections
Midterms, as the name indicates, happen at the midway point during a president’s term. The 2018 elections were the last midterm, with 2014 before that, then 2010, etc. With the exception of presidential election days, midterm elections see the highest turnout rate by voters, and there are a ton of major elections being decided, There are a lot of marquee races for state executives (e.g. governor, attorney general), U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state legislative, and local (i.e. city, county, special district) offices.
Midterms, therefore, are the closest analog to presidential elections (besides other presidential elections), and thus the most likely kind of election to be a “referendum” on an incumbent president. While it depends on the situation, here are some general arguments for how midterms are and are not referendums.
Arguments that they ARE referendums:
- With the next highest turnout rate and many of the same voters that turn out in presidential elections, midterms are a good indication of how they will vote in the next presidential election.
- The sitting president’s party historically performs significantly better in congressional elections that occur in presidential election years than in mid-term years, suggesting that midterms show dissatisfaction with the current president and his party.
- Similarly to the above, the president’s party often fares poorly in state legislative elections during midterms as well.¹
Arguments that they are NOT referendums:
- Even though elections have become increasingly nationalized, factors specific to these non-presidential elections can matter. A surface-level view of an election can’t directly tell you why voters chose their candidate. It might be a vote against the president’s party, but it might instead be against a candidate specific a different election like the U.S. Senate, for example.
- Even though the president’s party tends to perform poorly in midterm elections, that same party (and the president himself) can come roaring back in the next presidential election. Prior to Donald Trump, the last three presidents were re-elected and served full second terms: Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. Thus, the midterm isn’t always indicative of what happens in the next presidential election.
All that being said, a sitting president and their party should still be very concerned if and when they do perform poorly in a midterm election. If you don’t take an election seriously, it often comes back to bite you.
Odd-Year Elections
Some elections are normally scheduled for odd-numbered years. They see less voter turnout that presidential and midterm elections, but there are still major races being decided. Many of these are in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. These four states have regularly scheduled elections in odd-numbered years for all of their state legislative races and the vast majority of their elected state executives.²
But in every state, there are some local elections being decided in odd years as well. Such offices include mayors, city councils, and county commissions. Not all of these happen in odd-numbered years, but many do.
As a whole, these elections — even those for governor — are rarely, if ever, indicative of what will occur in the next presidential election. The kinds of voters that turn out in odd-years are way different than those who turn out in presidential elections. Almost all odd-year voters also participate in presidential elections, but a considerable number of voters in presidential election years aren’t even aware that there are normally timed elections in odd-years, even when they live somewhere that has those elections.
Particular odd-year elections might be a referendum on a president for their specific state or area. Virginia’s gubernatorial election in 2021, won by Republican Glenn Youngkin, could signal trouble for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party…in Virginia elections. It tells little to nothing, however, of what will happen in a state like Arizona because Arizona is a totally different situation. It doesn’t necessarily even foretell what will happen in Virginia in 2022, because a lot of voters that will turn out in the 2022 midterms in that state did not vote in its 2021 election.
In short, a good rule of thumb is that odd-year elections are not automatically predictors of the following midterm (or presidential) elections. That does not mean odd-years aren’t relevant at all, but it does mean that you should be very careful about making midterm or presidential year predictions based on them.
Special Elections
By definition, these are unique situations. Special elections describe elections that occur at a time different from when they are normally scheduled. They fill seats for elected officials who died, resigned, or were forcibly removed from their position.
Special elections can occur virtually at any time in the year. Even elections scheduled on the day of a presidential, midterm, or odd-year election can be considered special if that seat wasn’t up for a vote then normally. For example, a U.S. Senate seat filled in the November 2022 midterm election could be eventually vacated and then decided again in the November 2024 presidential election if that was when it would be scheduled. (Each state has different laws regarding when and how vacant seats are filled.)
Due to their erratic nature, special elections can see wildly varying rates of turnout, though they rarely approach the levels of presidential or midterm elections, or even some odd-year elections. As a result, they are rarely if ever a referendum on an incumbent president. Even when it could be considered a referendum, it really only gauges the particular state or area that election was for. This is still the case when a bunch of special elections happened to be scheduled on the same day or close to it. These elections are too spread out across the country and there are too few of them to make a reasonable prediction about future elections.
In short, don’t ever assume a special election is a referendum on a president. Look deeper into the details, and don’t predict what the country will do based on what one state or one area of a state does.
Will 2022 be a Referendum on Joe Biden?
The big question here is whether 2022 is a referendum on Joe Biden. Since this is a midterm election, it makes most sense to revisit the section on midterms and how they have played out historically. In summary, midterms are rarely kind to a president and his party.
For the U.S. House, a president’s party hasn’t captured a net positive in seats since George W. Bush in 2002.³ Since then, the sitting president’s party has lost a whopping 36.5 seats in that chamber on average. As of February 9th, 2022, there are 222 Democrats, 212 Republicans, and 1 vacancy in the chamber.⁴ If we only go by these statistics, that spells major trouble for Biden and the Democratic Party. We must still account for elements specific to each individual race that this surface view won’t necessarily capture. Still, there is a lot of reason for them to worry about the U.S. House in 2022.
For the U.S. Senate, only one-third of the chamber is up every two years — and this year, it is 34 seats instead of the usual 33. With the chamber evenly split at 50–50, and Vice President Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote for the Democrats, Republicans only need a net gain of 1 seat to retake control of the chamber. The three major election competitiveness rating organizations — Cook Political Report, Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections by Nathan L. Gonzales — give Republicans a good shot at taking back the majority, though it is far from guaranteed. One must also consider that not every seat is considered competitive.
At the state government level, Republicans have dominated elections over the past couple decades. Republicans still control the majority of governor’s offices and state legislatures, but Democrats have made up some ground in the past few years. Most gubernatorial elections occur in midterms (36 states) and there is a vast majority of state legislative elections this year as well. Regardless of these predictions, it’s likely that Republicans will still hold most state legislative chambers and governorships after 2022.
- The website CNalysis, which has state legislative chamber ratings similar to what Cook/Sabato/Gonzales do for congressional race ratings, projects that Republicans will make gains in both state houses and state senates, especially ones that they control.
- All four of those ratings organizations also have gubernatorial predictions. In general, they forecast some major opportunities for Republicans to pick up governor’s races as well.
So, will 2022 be a referendum on Joe Biden and the Democratic Party? We can’t know for sure how many of these voters are motivated by dissatisfaction with the current presidential administration and his fellow party members, or to what extent they are. Some of these voters are already predisposed to vote against them anyway, just like some voters are already predisposed to vote for them. In any case, history suggests that Biden and his political party should be very concerned about what happens in 2022.
- Note, however, that Ballotpedia’s chart also includes state legislative elections occurring between a presidential election and the following midterm (i.e. odd-year and special elections). However, since the vast majority of these seats are going to be up at midterms and presidential elections, specifically the “First two years” option of that chart gives a good indication of the president’s party performance for the midterms.
- Note that each state (and not just these four) varies in which of their state executive officials are chosen by voters. In New Jersey, for example, it’s only that governor and lieutenant governor that are voted on. Some states like Mississippi, on the other hand, vote on a lot more offices, such as auditor. Some executive offices found in one state might not even exist in another state, or its duties might be part of another state executive office.
- The American Presidency Project. “Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President’s Party in Mid-Term Elections.” https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections (accessed February 9, 2022).
- U.S. House of Representatives Press Gallery. “Party Breakdown.” https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown (accessed February 9, 2022).
