Trump’s Endorsements Have Been Very Successful So Far — But Keep These Caveats in Mind
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As the primary season in U.S. politics races toward its end and general election season ramps up, one of the key storylines has been the amount of endorsements from former President Donald Trump. It is true that his chosen candidates have been, on the whole, very successful in winning their primaries. As of August 28, 2022, his primary record for regularly-scheduled elections stands at 198–17 (92%) according to Ballotpedia stats. Any way you cut it, Trump still has a massive influence on the Republican Party.
But a surface-level view doesn’t capture the entire story of why he has seen so much success. A more in-depth look shows that some of this success isn’t surprising. It isn’t just a matter of Trump himself.
It’s Primary Season
Arguably the biggest caveat of all is that these are primaries. A recent president, especially one so beloved by most of the core base of his party as Trump, is going to have outsized influence on who the voters choose in primaries. Why is that?
For one thing, a lot of primaries are going to be closed or open. In a closed primary, only voters registered with a party can vote in that party’s primary. In an open primary, a voter can choose to participate in that party’s primary even if they aren’t registered with them, but most often a voter that typically supports that party will choose that party’s primary anyway. More strongly partisan and ideological voters are going to participate at higher rates in primaries than those who are less tied to a party or ideology, even more so than in a general election.
Since a party’s base (in this case, the Republican Party) is going to have much greater influence in the primaries, and they are highly supportive of the previous president, the previous president’s endorsement is going to have a significant impact on these voters’ choices. All of us as voters look for mental shortcuts called heuristics when we make our choices, and Donald Trump’s endorsement is going to be a particularly powerful heuristic for Republican primary voters.
But even in primaries that aren’t closed or open, Trump’s endorsement can have a major impact. Take Washington state, for example. In the 3rd congressional district election, Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler ran for re-election following significant backlash from fellow party members for being one of the few Republicans to support the impeachment of Donald Trump. Washington has top-two primaries, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of political affiliation and the percent of the vote they get. Beutler came in a close third, only about 0.5% behind Trump’s endorsed candidate, Republican Joe Kent. Clearly, the former president had a major effect on the top-two primary outcome. It is still a generally more partisan electorate that shows up to the primary ballot box.
It’s a Midterm Election
Since at least 1934, in the days of Franklin Roosevelt’s presidency, the midterms have almost universally been bad news for the sitting president’s party, especially in the U.S. House. In more recent memory, Barack Obama’s Democratic Party lost a whopping 63 seats in that chamber in 2010, and Donald Trump’s Republican Party lost a substantial 40 seats in 2018. With Joe Biden’s Democratic Party back on top though not by much — holding the presidency, a thin majority in the U.S. House, and a 50–50 U.S. Senate — most signs indicate that they are in for a bumpy ride in 2022.
With public sentiment against Biden and midterm history on their side, the Republican Party has a significant opportunity for major electoral gains in the federal government. And with this comes a big chance for Trump to exert his political muscle and get many of his endorsement picks through their general elections.
Midterms also tend to see more outsized influence by the more partisan and ideological elements of the two major political parties than in presidential elections. The less partisan and ideological voters in the parties participate much more in presidential elections than midterm elections. (It’s similar to how they participate more in general elections than in primaries.) And as was said earlier, the more partisan voters in the Republican Party are particularly swayed by Trump’s endorsements. Since those voters will make up a larger proportion of participating voters in midterms than they do in presidential elections, Trump’s midterm endorsements will, and already have had, greater effect.
One might counter that Donald Trump had very mixed success with his 2018 endorsements, the previous midterm election. That year, Trump’s record was 56–40 (58%), a far cry from his current 92% success rate in 2022. But keep in mind that he was then the sitting president, and the sitting president’s party almost always gets shellacked in midterm elections. Trump was also unpopular at the time. Thus his endorsement success rate would decrease as a result. Now that the Democratic Party is in control, Trump will have greater influence this time around.
Lack of Comparable Presidential Endorsement Success Data
While a 92% success rate is certainly formidable regardless, there isn’t a lot of comparable data from previous presidents to stack it up against. The only other example appears to be Trump’s presidential predecessor, Barack Obama.
According to a Politico article, Obama’s large number of endorsements of down-ballot candidates at the end of his presidency in the 2016 election was “unprecedented.” (By down-ballot, we mean those offices that tend to appear lower on voting ballots, such as state legislative and judicial races.) Thus, Obama and Trump appear to be unusual in their engagement of down-ballot elections among U.S. presidents. In most cases, previous presidents stayed out of their party’s primary battles.
So, how does Trump’s endorsement win rate compare to Obama’s? We will only use even-numbered years as those have significantly more elections happening than in odd-numbered years, and thus more endorsements. Stats for both Trump and Obama endorsements come from Ballotpedia.¹ ²
- 2018 general elections: Trump made 96 endorsements and 58% won their races; Obama made 342 endorsements and 68% won their races.
- 2020 general elections: Trump made 183 endorsements and 77% won their races; Obama made 230 endorsements and 41% won their races.
- 2022 primary elections: Trump has made 239 endorsements and 92% won their primaries as of August 28, 2022; Obama has not made any primary endorsements.
A cursory glance suggests that Trump’s endorsements are more impactful than Obama’s endorsements. Maybe that is the case, but remember the caveats raised earlier (and note the ones I list in the last section of this post).
Presidents often have major influence on their party even shortly after they leave office. Obama did not endorse primary candidates in any of those years — if he did, his endorsement win rate would be far higher. Yet while Obama’s fellow Democrat, Joe Biden, won the presidency in 2020, Obama had been out of office long enough that he had a bit less sway over his party’s opinion, enough that 2020 Democratic presidential candidates openly criticized him in presidential debates. His opinion would be less effective on the general electorate as well. Of course, Obama still is a beloved figure for most Democrats. It’s just that as time goes on, opinions can and do change about public figures, even if only by a little bit.
But unlike Obama, Trump has the potential to return to the presidency for a second non-consecutive term — a feat only accomplished by Grover Cleveland — and he has only been out of office for two years. Trump has also gotten heavily involved in the primaries, unlike Obama. Remember what was said about the midterms earlier: the sitting president’s party tends to fare poorly in Congress. (The same often goes for the president’s party in state legislative seats in midterms as well.)
All these factors are reasons why the stats suggest Donald Trump having much more sway in comparison to Obama past 2018. And in 2018, Obama made significantly more endorsements than Trump (342 to 96). Major differences in the sizes of datasets can skew results. If Trump had made a similar number of endorsements that year, would Trump’s chosen candidates have had a greater win rate? We can only speculate whether that would have been the case.
In short, it is hard to get a full picture that gauges how particularly effective Trump’s endorsements are in relation to past presidents’ endorsements. There isn’t much data available, and the data that can be found isn’t entirely comparable. There are also unique qualities to each race, discussed in the last section, that affect endorsement success rates.
How Will Trump’s Endorsements Fare in General Elections?
In only a matter of weeks, statewide primaries will be over and it will be a much different ballgame in general elections. Undoubtedly, Trump’s endorsed candidates (as a whole) will not be as successful in their general elections as in their primaries. For one, a 92% win rate in primaries is too high to replicate in a general election. For two, there will be a lot more voters involved that will not be swayed by Trump’s endorsement — as is particularly the case with more strongly partisan Democratic voters. If anything, some of these voters could be persuaded to vote against Trump’s chosen candidates because he endorsed them, if they weren’t going to already. Still, it is a midterm election, and this time that factor is favorable to the Republican Party.
It would be very difficult, if not impossible, to give an informed prediction of all these races without delving into the background of every race that involves a Trump-endorsed candidate in the general elections. Here are some reasons why:
- Some endorsements are statewide candidates, as is the case for governors and U.S. Senate, while other races only cover a portion of a state. It’s far different campaigning for a statewide office than it is for a more localized section of a state.
- While some races will be highly competitive, others will be more favorable (sometimes heavily so) toward either the Republican or Democratic Party because of demographics and which party voters identify with more.
- The candidates themselves play a role regardless of Trump’s endorsement.
- Some states and districts will care more about certain issues than others regardless of how much they support Trump.
- Some of Trump’s endorsed candidates are incumbents, while others are challengers to an incumbent. The incumbency advantage is well-documented in political science. Then some races are for open seats, which can play out differently than seats that already have an occupant running for re-election.
The list goes on.
The 2022 general elections will be held on November 8th, just over two months from now. That’s a long time in election cycles. There is a lot that can happen in that period. Given that and all the above, one should be careful about making, reading, or listening to sweeping predictions of how well (or poorly) Trump-endorsed candidates will do. Generally speaking, Trump Republicans have more reasons to be optimistic about their chances than the opposing side of the political aisle. But as is often the case in politics, one should not get too carried away with prognostications.
- Ballotpedia. “Endorsements by Donald Trump.” https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump (accessed August 31, 2022).
- Ballotpedia. “Endorsements by Barack Obama.” https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Barack_Obama (accessed August 31, 2022).
