The Current Longest Partisan Droughts in US Elections #8: Governors’ Races (Republicans)
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Every election, most attention is paid to the elections for offices where there is a chance of a close election and/or one that could flip to a different party than the current officeholder’s party. And that makes sense: We naturally want to know where the greatest competition is.
But what about those offices were one party or the other just can’t make a breakthrough?
In many contests at the federal, state, and local levels of governments, there is an unfortunate lack of competition. No matter what happens, one party is practically guaranteed to win that office. Or it can be occasionally competitive, but one party just can’t quite break through. Even so, studying where the lack of electoral competition is, and how it came to be, can be just as interesting as where the most competition is.
As I started writing an article about the longest partisan win streaks in US elections, it became apparent that my initial scope was far too large for a single article. Even if I simply divided it by the type of office (e.g. president, US Senate), it’s a lot to take in. So, this series is going to be broken up into multiple but frequent entries, by type of office and by party, shown in the list below. Each office will first look at Democratic droughts and then Republican droughts.
- Parts 1 and 2: States’ Electoral Votes for President
- Parts 3 and 4: US Senate Seats
- Parts 5 and 6: US House Congressional Delegations by State
- Parts 7 and 8: Governors’ Races
- Parts 9 and 10: State House Majorities
- Parts 11 and 12: State Senate Majorities
Each of these posts examines the states with the top five longest droughts each for Democrats, and then Republicans, in each post’s respective type of office (unless more states are tied for a spot in the top 5). Included are the primary and supplemental sources for the data I used to compile the information, political contexts surrounding the elections, other nuances specific to these elections, and a brief description of what other data is shown for these offices.
Primary Source(s) for Data
The primary source for my data comes from Congressional Quarterly’s (CQ) Guide to U.S. Elections, 3rd Edition. For elections newer than the publish year of that CQ Guide (1994 onward), I used Dave Leip’s Election Atlas. Some extra context comes from the following sources:
- The Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives’ official vote counts for federal elections from 1920 to the present
- Party Affiliations in the State Legislatures: A Year By Year Summary, 1796–2006 by Michael J. Dubin
- Ballotpedia pages on state legislative chambers’ election results from 2007 to the present
- The U.S. Elections Atlas compilation of various elections for the states
Longest Republican Droughts
Washington (1980)
Here is the winning party and the margin of victory in Washington’s 1980 governor election and each of the preceding five elections.
- 1960: Democrat (1.4 points)
- 1964: Republican (11.9 points)
- 1968: Republican (10.4 points)
- 1972: Republican (8.0 points)
- 1976: Democrat (8.7 points)
- 1980: Republican (13.4 points)
Democrats have won the last 11 elections for Washington’s governorship (including this year), the party’s longest active streak for governor in the country. Prior to that, however, the electoral history for The Evergreen State’s chief executive was more in Republicans’ favor. In the first 24 gubernatorial elections for Washington since it achieved statehood in 1889, Republicans had won 14 times, Democrats had won nine times, and a third party won once. With the current win streak, Democrats have now been victorious in 20 of the 35 elections for Washington’s governor.
The last Republican to win it was John Spellman. Spellman initially ran for governor in 1976, when he lost to Democrat Dixy Lee Ray in the general election. Before that, the Seattle native served in the U.S. Navy and worked as a lawyer. His break into politics was as a King County Commissioner, later serving as county executive. Spellman would get a second chance at governor in 1980, this time emerging victorious over Democrat James A. McDermott, who himself had defeated Ray in the primary that year.
But Spellman lost his own reelection bid in 1984, defeated by Democrat Booth Gardner. Gardner would go on to win reelection in 1988 by a landslide (24.4 percentage points) and declined to run again in 1992. Since Spellman’s second defeat, a Republican has yet to win the governor’s office in the State of Washington.
Oregon (1982)
Here is the winning party and the margin of victory in Oregon’s 1982 governor election and each of the preceding five elections.
- 1962: Republican (12.6 points)
- 1966: Republican (10.6 points)
- 1970: Republican (11.4 points)
- 1974: Democrat (15.6 points)
- 1978: Republican (10.0 points)
- 1982: Republican (25.5 points)
In Washington’s neighbor to the south, Republicans once enjoyed a lot of success, particularly from the late 1910s to the early 1950s. In the case of Oregon’s governorship, Republicans prevailed often from 1938 to 1982, when they won 12 of 14 elections. (One of the two times Democrats did win in that time frame was in a 1956 special election, which was called following the death of Republican governor Paul Patterson. Patterson had announced a bid for US Senate only two days prior to his passing.)
That 1982 governor election saw the last Republican victor, Victor Atiyeh. Atiyeh won his first term in 1978 when he defeated incumbent Democrat Robert Straub (who himself had lost a governor’s race twice in the 1966 and 1970 general elections to Republican Tom McCall). Atiyeh won comfortably in 1978, then won in a landslide in 1982 against Democrat Ted Kulongoski (who would eventually become governor himself after he won in 2002 and 2006).
Since Atiyeh’s second term, Republicans have usually been pretty competitive in Oregon’s gubernatorial elections, with the vote margin generally around three to seven percentage points. This was particularly the case in 2010, when Democrat John Kitzhaber only won by 1.5 percentage points against Republican Chris Dudley. Still, Republicans haven’t quite been able to break through since Atiyeh left office.
Delaware (1988)
Here is the winning party and the margin of victory in Delaware’s 1988 governor election and each of the preceding five elections.
- 1968: Republican (1.0 points)
- 1972: Democrat (3.4 points)
- 1976: Republican (14.4 points)
- 1980: Republican (42.1 points)
- 1984: Republican (11.0 points)
- 1988: Republican (41.4 points)
Democrats have won the last nine contests for Delaware’s governor (including this year), but before then, Republicans had a streak of their own going. Back then, it was more of a purple state, splitting between the parties often across state and federal offices. Yet from 1976 to 1988, Republicans in gubernatorial general elections ran roughshod over their Democratic opponents, particularly in 1980 and 1988 when the margins of victory were a staggering 40+ points.
That four-win streak was by two Republicans who won two terms each. First was Pierre duPont, who won in 1976 and 1980. The next was Michael Castle in 1984 and 1988. Even without their colossal victories in 1980 and 1988, respectively, their other gubernatorial victories were both comfortable for them.
But the tides would soon change for the Republican Party, at least in statewide elections. In 1988, Castle won reelection against his Democratic opponent by 41.4 points. Yet in 1992, Democrat Tom Carper defeated his Republican opponent by 32.0 points — effectively a complete reversal for the parties in Delaware’s contest for governor in four years. (Carper now serves in the US Senate, though he will be retiring at the end of his term in January 2025.) With the exception of the 2004 race, Republicans haven’t come close to winning the office since.
Colorado (2002)
Here is the winning party and the margin of victory in Colorado’s 2002 governor election and each of the preceding five elections.
- 1982: Democrat (34.0 points)
- 1986: Democrat (17.2 points)
- 1990: Democrat (26.5 points)
- 1994: Democrat (16.8 points)
- 1998: Republican (0.6 points)
- 2002: Republican (29.0 points)
The Republican drought for Colorado Governor isn’t quite as long as the previous states discussed here, but it’s still been over two decades since someone of that party won an election for the office. Unlike those states, however, the most recent Republican gubernatorial victories in Colorado were only a relatively brief interlude in what was otherwise a string of Democratic dominance for the Centennial State’s highest office.
That lone Republican governor during a series of Democratic governorships was Bill Owens. Owens was already a well-known name in Colorado political circles, having served as a state house representative, a state senator, and the state treasurer. In 1998, he mounted a campaign for governor, squeaking by Democrat Gail Schoettler by only 0.63 points in a time when Democrats were handily winning the office. He would follow up that nail-biter with a commanding performance in 2002, defeating Rollie Heath by almost 29.0 points. Owens’ 62.6% of the vote in 2002 was the highest vote share a Republican candidate for Colorado governor has ever had.
It’s been tough sledding for Republicans for Colorado governor since then. They hit a particularly low point in 2010, when Republican Dan Maes garnered only 11.1% of the vote while Republican-turned-Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo won 36.4% of the vote. Democrat John Hickenlooper won the election with 51.1% of the vote. Republican Bob Beauprez came fairly close to defeating Hickenlooper in the latter’s reelection bid in 2014, but other than that the Republican Party has had significant trouble winning the Colorado governorship in recent memory.
New York (2002)
Here is the winning party and the margin of victory in New York’s 2002 governor election and each of the preceding five elections.
- 1982: Democrat (3.4 points)
- 1986: Democrat (32.8 points)
- 1990: Democrat (31.8 points)
- 1994: Republican (3.3 points)
- 1998: Republican (21.2 points)
- 2002: Republican (15.9 points)
Similarly to Colorado, the most recent Republican victories for New York’s governor were a relatively short break in a long succession of Democratic governorships. Usually, Democrats have won contests for that office handily both before and after those three Republican wins in 1994, 1998, and 2002. All three of those Republican wins were by one man: George Pataki.
Let’s set the stage in 1994. The incumbent Mario Cuomo had bulldozed the previous two Republican candidates for governor (though in 1990, a lot of the would-be Republican vote was siphoned off by the Conservative Party candidate) and was vying for a fourth term in the office. Pataki, however, pulled off a major upset to win by 3.3 points. Even more stunningly, Pataki won every county except for Albany, Bronx, Kings, New York, and Queens (i.e., only around the state capitol and New York City). He followed up that close win with definitive victories in 1998 and 2002.
Pataki, however, declined to run for a fourth term, which he was unlikely to win. His large margins of victory in 1998 and 2002 gave way to Democrat Eliot Spitzer’s dominant performance in 2006, when he won by 40.8 points. His 69.6% vote share was the largest a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in New York has ever had. Andrew Cuomo, a son of the aforementioned Mario Cuomo, handily won three terms of his own in 2010, 2014, and 2018. The closest a Republican has come to becoming New York’s governor since Pataki was Republican Lee Zeldin in 2022 (more on that below).
Could We See Any of These Partisan Streaks End in the Near Future?
It’s not likely, but there is somewhat of a chance.
This year, Democrats comfortably won Washington’s governorship for the 11th straight time and Delaware’s for the 9th straight time, though both were a bit closer than they were in 2020. Republicans will have to wait four years for another crack at those two states, but as of right now there is little sign that they could win next time in those places.
Colorado has an election in 2026, but here hasn’t been much indication yet that Republicans will be competitive (though that is still almost two years away). Republicans came fairly close in 2014, but the current governor, Democrat Jared Polis, won by 10.6 points in 2018 and then expanded his margin of victory to 19.5 points in 2022.
New York and Oregon, however, present interesting opportunities. Both of their 2022 gubernatorial contests were closer than some political observers anticipated, so 2026 may hold some surprises for these two states.
New York
In New York, Andrew Cuomo won by a wide margin three straight times before resigning in late 2021 amid controversies regarding responses to COVID-19 in nursing homes and accusations of sexual harassment. His lieutenant governor, Kathy Hochul, became governor and won in 2022. Yet her victory was somewhat close, as she only defeated Lee Zeldin by 6.4 points.
Whether 2022 is an indication of a more competitive Republican Party for the Empire State’s governorship in the future remains to be seen. It could be more so a reaction to the issues surrounding Cuomo, and voters’ frustrations might have been aimed at Hochul by association (whether that is fair or unfair). Regardless of the reason(s), it’s a good sign for the Republican Party, though they are still heavily outnumbered in voter registrations statistics by Democrats. (They’re also a smaller proportion of the electorate than non-party affiliated voters.)
Oregon
Despite the state’s reputation as a solidly blue state, it was mentioned earlier that Oregon has had some reasonably competitive gubernatorial elections in recent memory even though Democrats have won it 10 consecutive times. Here are the margins of victory for all of The Beaver State’s 21st century contests.
- 2022: 3.4 points
- 2018: 6.4 points
- 2016 (special election): 7.2 points
- 2014: 5.8 points
- 2010: 1.5 points
- 2006: 8.0 points
- 2002: 2.9 points
Democrats are still likely to keep their streaks going in these states, but they might turn out to be a couple of the most competitive governor contests in 2026.
