The Current Longest Partisan Droughts in US Elections #6: US House Delegation Majorities by State (Republicans)
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Every election, most attention is paid to the elections for offices where there is a chance of a close election and/or one that could flip to a different party than the current officeholder’s party. And that makes sense: We naturally want to know where the greatest competition is.
But what about those offices were one party or the other just can’t make a breakthrough?
In many contests at the federal, state, and local levels of governments, there is an unfortunate lack of competition. No matter what happens, one party is practically guaranteed to win that office. Or it can be occasionally competitive, but one party just can’t quite break through. Even so, studying where the lack of electoral competition is, and how it came to be, can be just as interesting as where the most competition is.
As I started writing an article about the longest partisan win streaks in US elections, it became apparent that my initial scope was far too large for a single article. Even if I simply divided it by the type of office (e.g. president, US Senate), it’s a lot to take in. So, this series is going to be broken up into multiple but frequent entries, by type of office and by party, shown in the list below. Each office will first look at Democratic droughts and then Republican droughts.
- Parts 1 and 2: States’ Electoral Votes for President
- Parts 3 and 4: US Senate Seats
- Parts 5 and 6: US House Congressional Delegations by State
- Parts 7 and 8: Governors’ Races
- Parts 9 and 10: State House Majorities
- Parts 11 and 12: State Senate Majorities
Each of these posts examines the states with the top five longest droughts each for Democrats, and then Republicans, in each post’s respective type of office (unless more states are tied for a spot in the top 5). Included are the primary and supplemental sources for the data I used to compile the information, political contexts surrounding the elections, other nuances specific to these elections, and a brief description of what other data is shown for these offices.
Today is part 6, which looks at the states where the Republican Party has gone the longest without winning a majority of their US House delegations.
Primary Source(s) for Data
The primary sources for my data are the US House of Representatives website’s federal election returns from 1920 to 2022 and Congressional Quarterly’s (CQ) Guide to U.S. Elections, 3rd Edition. Supplemental info comes from the following places:
- Party Affiliations in the State Legislatures: A Year By Year Summary, 1796–2006 by Michael J. Dubin
- Ballotpedia pages on state legislative chambers’ election results from 2007 to the present
- The U.S. Elections Atlas compilation of various elections for the states
- The presidential election results archive from The American Presidency Project
Longest Republican Droughts
The chart shows the current longest stretches of time that one major party or the other have gone since taking the majority of a state US House delegation in a regularly-scheduled election. It is not accounting for instances where there may have been a special election that flipped the majority party of a delegation (e.g., if there were four Democrats and three Republicans, one Democrat resigned in the middle of a term, and a special election installed a Republican in their place).
This also does not account for instances where there were ties in the number of Democrats and Republicans in their representation during these partisan droughts. (That has occurred for most of these states.) Also keep in mind the varying sizes of congressional delegations by state, and that the sizes of these delegations have sometimes changed over the decades with redistricting.
Maryland (1952)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in Maryland in the 1952 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1942–1950) in Maryland, Republicans only won 10 out of 30 total contests.
In the succeeding five US House elections (1954–1962), Republicans won only nine out of 36 total contests.
Political observers can make a compelling case that no state has seen a longer struggle for election success by the Republican Party than Maryland. Maryland already appeared in longest Republican droughts for US Senate and will appear again in this series for the state house and state senate.
The 1952 election, however, was one of relative success for Maryland Republicans at the federal level. It was second of three straight presidential elections where a Republican won the state (Dwight Eisenhower’s reelection campaign, in this case). It was also the second of four straight US Senate election victories for the party. Lastly, they took a majority of Maryland’s US house delegation, the first time they had done so since the 1920 election (when there were four Republican and two Democratic winners).
Now it’s been over 70 years now since Republicans last won that majority, though the US House is arguably where Maryland Republicans have been the most successful. While they took six of the next nine US Senate elections, Republicans haven’t won one of those since 1980. They’ve only won five of the last 18 gubernatorial elections (1954, 1966, 2002, 2014, and 2018). The Democratic Party has continued its tight grip on the state legislature.
Meanwhile, Republican candidates for the US House managed to split the state’s delegation in seven elections since 1952. Those cases were 1968, 1972, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, and 2000. Save for a handful of other instances, however, Republicans there haven’t been able to get over this majority hump.
Massachusetts (1952)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in Massachusetts in the 1952 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1942–1950) in Massachusetts, Republicans won 45 out of 70 total contests.
In the succeeding five US House elections (1954–1962), Republicans won only 31 out of 68 total contests.
Massachusetts wasn’t always the Democratic stalwart it is now. From the 1850s through the 1920s, it was a thoroughly Republican state at both the state and federal levels of government. In the first nine congressional elections in Massachusetts where Republicans started competing (1856–1872), they won 93 out of 94 times, and that exception was a third-party candidate.
The Massachusetts Democratic Party gained a more consistent foothold in state and federal elected offices in the late 1940s, though the balance of power was still roughly even between them and the Republican Party. In 1954 and 1956, the two parties split the delegation at seven seats a piece. Then in 1958, Democrats finally took a majority of the state’s US House delegation. The only other times they had done that against Republicans before then was in 1874 and 1890.
And so the fortunes of the Republican Party for Massachusetts US House seats have flipped since then. In 47 of the first 49 congressional elections between Democrats and Republicans in the state (1856–1952), Republicans had a majority of that chamber’s seats. Yet in the last 33 congressional elections (1958–2022), Democrats have won a majority. And since 1970, Republicans haven’t even come close to doing that in Massachusetts. Now they’ve gone 14 straight congressional elections without winning a single US House seat from the state.
Oregon (1954)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in Oregon in the 1954 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1944–1952) in Oregon, Republicans won all 20 contests.
In the succeeding five US House elections (1956–1964), Republicans won only six out of 20 total contests.
This Pacific Northwest state was a Republican bastion for most elected offices in state and federal government from the 1890s through the early 1950s. Republicans won all 12 US Senate elections from 1918 through 1950 and majorities (oftentimes supermajorities) in the state house and senate in every state legislative election from 1880 to 1932. Even in the 1930s, when the Democratic Party experienced widespread gains in election victories across the country, their boost in Oregon was short-lived and only particularly noticeable in the state house.
The US House was no exception, though Oregon has never had that many total seats in that chamber. In the 38 congressional elections from 1880 to 1954, when the state’s US House representation went from one to four seats, Democrats only won a majority of the seats there twice (1932 and 1936). Then in each of the six elections from 1942 to 1952, Republicans won all four seats.
But in 1954, Democrats won their second of four straight US Senate elections, a special election for governor, three of the four US House seats, and a majority of the state house. They also went from a small minority in the state senate (six of 30 seats) to splitting that chamber evenly at 15 seats each for the Democratic and Republican Parties. Republicans were still quite competitive for some of these offices for a while (e.g., they won 11 straight US Senate elections from 1966 to 1996). In the US House, though, they best they would be able to do since 1954 is split the delegation evenly between Democrats and Republicans in 1960, 1966, 1968, 1970, and 1972.
California (1956)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in California in the 1956 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1946–1954) in California, Republicans won 78 out of 129 total contests.
In the succeeding five US House elections (1958–1966), Republicans won only 73 out of 174 total contests.
Although several other states are arguably deeper shades of blue, California is the poster child of a Democratic state because of its massive size. But like several other Democratic states — and it’s Pacific Coast neighbor, Oregon — there was a time long ago that it was strongly Republican, particularly from the mid-1890s through the 1920s.
Like in many states in the 1930s during the Great Depression, however, the Democratic Party experienced a significant boost in voter support in California, leading to widespread gains in elected offices at both the state and federal levels of government. They went from winning one of the 11 US House seats in the state in the 1930 election to 11 of the 20 seats in the 1932 election, when the US Census and redistricting significantly boosted the congressional representation of California.
In the 1940s and 1950s, though, California Republicans improved their electoral standing. They were regularly winning US Senate and governor elections as well as majorities in both the state house and senate. In 1946, they reclaimed a majority of the US House delegation (14 of 23 seats). But in 1958, Democrats took back a majority of the state’s US House delegation, the US Senate seat, the gubernatorial seat, and majorities in both state legislative chambers. Since then, Republicans, with few exceptions, haven’t come close to winning a majority of US House seats in California.
Hawaii (Never)
Republicans have never won a majority of Hawaii’s US House delegation. Since Hawaii became a state in 1959, only two of its 64 total US House contests have been won by a Republican, and both times were by Patricia Saiki (1986 and 1988). In both cases, she won pretty handily, but those times split the Hawaii delegation at one apiece for Democrats and Republicans.
- In 1986, Saiki defeated Democrat Mufi Hannemann with 59.2% of the vote compared to 37.5% for Hannemann.
- In 1988, Saiki defeated Democrat Mary Bitterman with 54.7% of the vote compared to 43.2% for Bitterman.
Saiki would decline to run again for her seat, instead taking a chance in running for the US Senate special election caused by the death of Spark Matsunaga. She would lose against her fellow US House representative, Daniel Akaka, with 44.6% of the vote compared to 54.0% for Akaka.
Apart from Saiki and US Senator Hiram Fong, though, no Republican has ever won a congressional election in Hawaii. It’s rarely even been close.
Could We See Any of These Partisan Streaks End in the Near Future?
It’s nearly a certainty that the Republican droughts for these states will continue.
- California: Currently, 40 of the 52 US House seats in this state are held by Democrats, so 27 is the threshold for a majority of that delegation. Therefore, Republicans need a net gain of 15 seats, and that is not going to happen. That is far too many seats needed to flip, and Republicans would need to hold the seats they already have.
- Hawaii: The Democratic Party has been so thoroughly dominant in state and federal offices in this state that it is hard to imagine even one of the two US House seats will be won by a Republican. Unless a Republican candidate here channels an inner Patricia Saiki, these seats will both stay firmly Democratic.
- Maryland: Republicans haven’t won more than two of the eight US House seats in this state since 2000, and haven’t won more than one of the seats since 2010. They usually haven’t been particularly close elections, either.
- Massachusetts: As aforementioned, Republicans haven’t won a single US House seat in this state in 14 consecutive congressional elections. There are currently nine total seats, so Republicans would have to win five of them to have a majority of the delegation. That state hasn’t ever had such a massive swing of seats in the US House, and simple voter registration statistics dictate that it won’t happen in 2024, either.
The state in this article that is most likely to break its Republican drought is Oregon, and even that is still unlikely. After only winning one of the five US House seats in the state in every congressional election from 1996 to 2020, Republicans were able to take a second seat in 2022, following redistricting and the addition of a sixth US House seat for the state. Take a look at the results from the Office of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives.
The 2nd district has been represented by a Republican for a long time, but with the new congressional boundaries the 5th district was won in a close race by Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer. The 6th district was another competitive race, though Democrat Andrea Salinas came out on top. Still, that would have meant Democrats and Republicans at best could have split the delegation at three seats apiece if they won the sixth district.
Major election forecasters’ predictions are skeptical, at best, that Republicans could win more than two of Oregon’s six seats in 2024 as well. Each of those six forecasters agree on the following:
- Chavez-DeRemer’s (R) 5th district seat is a toss-up.
- Salinas’ (D) 6th district seat, despite being a close race in 2022, is highly likely to stay with Democrats (though some forecasters are even more certain of that than others).
- Three of the other seats are definitely going to be Democratic and the last seat will definitely be Republican.
These analyses mostly conform with the Oregonian news outlet’s analysis of the partisan leanings of the new districts following the state legislature’s approval of the new district boundaries. So, the ceiling for Oregon Republicans in US House races is most likely two, but definitely no more than three, seats.
In short, don’t expect Republicans to take a majority of US House seats in California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, or Oregon in 2024 — or anytime in the near future.
