The Current Longest Partisan Droughts in US Elections #5: US House Delegation Majorities by State (Democrats)
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Every election, most attention is paid to the elections for offices where there is a chance of a close election and/or one that could flip to a different party than the current officeholder’s party. And that makes sense: We naturally want to know where the greatest competition is.
But what about those offices were one party or the other just can’t make a breakthrough?
In many contests at the federal, state, and local levels of governments, there is an unfortunate lack of competition. No matter what happens, one party is practically guaranteed to win that office. Or it can be occasionally competitive, but one party just can’t quite break through. Even so, studying where the lack of electoral competition is, and how it came to be, can be just as interesting as where the most competition is.
As I started writing an article about the longest partisan win streaks in US elections, it became apparent that my initial scope was far too large for a single article. Even if I simply divided it by the type of office (e.g. president, US Senate), it’s a lot to take in. So, this series is going to be broken up into multiple but frequent entries, by type of office and by party, shown in the list below. Each office will first look at Democratic droughts and then Republican droughts.
- Parts 1 and 2: States’ Electoral Votes for President
- Parts 3 and 4: US Senate Seats
- Parts 5 and 6: US House Congressional Delegations by State
- Parts 7 and 8: Governors’ Races
- Parts 9 and 10: State House Majorities
- Parts 11 and 12: State Senate Majorities
Each of these posts examines the states with the top five longest droughts each for Democrats, and then Republicans, in each post’s respective type of office (unless more states are tied for a spot in the top 5). Included are the primary and supplemental sources for the data I used to compile the information, political contexts surrounding the elections, other nuances specific to these elections, and a brief description of what other data is shown for these offices.
Today is part 5, which looks at the states where the Democratic Party has gone the longest without winning a majority of their congressional delegations.
Primary Source(s) for Data
The primary sources for my data are the US House of Representatives website’s federal election returns from 1920 to 2022 and Congressional Quarterly’s (CQ) Guide to U.S. Elections, 3rd Edition. Supplemental info comes from the following places:
- Party Affiliations in the State Legislatures: A Year By Year Summary, 1796–2006 by Michael J. Dubin
- Ballotpedia pages on state legislative chambers’ election results from 2007 to the present
- The U.S. Elections Atlas compilation of various elections for the states
- The presidential election results archive from The American Presidency Project
Longest Democratic Droughts
The chart shows the current longest stretches of time that one major party or the other have gone since taking the majority of a state US House delegation in a regularly-scheduled election. It is not accounting for instances where there may have been a special election that flipped the majority party of a delegation (e.g., if there were four Democrats and three Republicans, one Democrat resigned in the middle of a term, and a special election installed a Republican in their place).
This also does not account for instances where there were ties in the number of Democrats and Republicans in their representation during these partisan droughts. (That has occurred for most of these states.) Also keep in mind the varying sizes of congressional delegations by state, and that the sizes of these delegations have sometimes changed over the decades with redistricting.
Kansas (1916)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in Kansas in the 1916 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1906–1914) in Kansas, Democrats won 11 out of 40 total contests. (All 11 of those victories were in 1912 and 1914.)
In the succeeding five US House elections (1918–1926), Democrats won only five out of 40 total contests.
Kansas appears for a third time in this series (and will do so again one more time). Kansas election history has been brutal for the Democratic Party, who haven’t taken a majority of the state’s US House delegation for over a century now. Even when they did take the majority, they didn’t have it for very long.
There were actually slightly more votes casts for Republican US House candidates overall than for Democratic ones in 1916 Kansas, but because of how those votes were spread out across the districts, there ended up being five Democrats and three Republicans that won seats. There was no concurrent US Senate race, but Woodrow Wilson won reelection for president that same year, which included taking the electoral votes for Kansas.
But Democrats went from winning five of the eight US House seats in Kansas in 1916 to winning only one of them in 1918. That’s not to say that Democrats haven’t come close to winning a majority of the state’s US House delegation since then. They evenly split the number of seats with Republicans in the 1958 (three seats apiece), 1992 (two seats apiece), and 2006 (two seats apiece) elections. But they just haven’t quite been able to get over that majority hump for the past 108 years.
Nebraska (1936)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in Nebraska in the 1936 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1926–1934) in Nebraska, Democrats won 19 out of 28 total contests.
In the succeeding five US House elections (1938–1946), Democrats only won 4 out of 22 total contests.
Elections in 1936 Nebraska were a bit peculiar. While Democrat Franklin Roosevelt won Nebraska with almost 100,000 votes more than Republican Al Landon, there were only about 27,000 more votes cast for Democrats in US House elections than Republican ones. State legislative races had also just shifted to being nonpartisan (at least nominally) for the first time that year. Then George Norris — who won election to the US Senate as a Republican in 1912, 1918, 1924, and 1930 — won reelection by petition as an independent.
For the US House, 1936 was the fourth consecutive election that Democrats took a majority of the state’s delegation (1930, 1932, and 1934). Yet that string of success is an outlier for Nebraska Democrats in the US House. The only other times they won a majority of the state’s delegation were in the 1896, 1898, and 1926 elections.
But Democrats have come close to taking a majority of that delegation in other elections. Democrats and Republicans in the 1958 election split the seats at two apiece, and since Nebraska dropped to three US House seats starting with the 1962 election, Democrats have occasionally won one of the seats. Overall, though, elections for the US House in Nebraska have been historically quite rough for their party.
Wyoming (1976)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in Wyoming in the 1976 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1966–1974) in Wyoming, Democrats won three out of five total contests.
In the succeeding five US House elections (1978–1986), Democrats won none of the five contests.
Wyoming appears in this series for a third time (and will do so again two more times), as it is another state that historically has been highly resistant to Democrats getting elected. Since Wyoming became a state in 1890, it has always had only one US House representative, making it a statewide election like for US Senate. But the US House seat for Wyoming has only been won by a Democrat ten times: 1892, 1896, 1934, 1936, 1940, 1964, 1970, 1972, 1974, and 1976.
Half of those victories — 1964 and 1970 to 1976 — were by one man, Teno Roncalio. A son of Italian immigrants who fought on Omaha Beach during D-Day, Roncalio is an historically prominent figure in Wyoming politics. Even when Republicans won US Senate races and the electoral votes in Wyoming for president in 1972 and 1976, there was a noticeable amount of ticket-splitting for him. He’s one of the single most successful Democrats in Wyoming history.
Yet Roncalio would resign just a few days before the end of his last term, declining to run for reelection in 1978. Since then, no Democrat has won a US House race in Wyoming. In fact, the only other substantial success for Democrats after that was in gubernatorial races, in which they won five straight contests from 1974 to 1990 and the back-to-back wins of 2002 and 2006. Meanwhile, Republicans have won every US Senate race there since 1972 and have greatly increased their majorities in both the state house and state senate.
Florida (1988)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in Florida in the 1988 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1978–1986) in Florida, Democrats won 60 out of 87 total contests.
In the succeeding five US House elections (1990–1998), Democrats only won 43 out of 111 contests.
Except for the Reconstruction Era that immediately followed the Civil War, the early history of Florida as a state was one of Democratic dominance. It wasn’t until the 1960s that we can see a real Republican influx in Florida. They won their first governor’s race since Reconstruction, their first US Senate race since it became a popularly elected office, and large portions of the state legislature (though still far from taking a majority of either chamber).
In the late 1980s, this shift to Republicans became even more pronounced, as Bob Martinez won the 1986 gubernatorial election, Connie Mack won the 1988 US Senate race, and the party inched ever closer to a state senate majority. George H. W. Bush won Florida handily (by almost 1,000,000 votes) en route to his presidential election victory. Connie Mack, meanwhile, only defeated Democrat Buddy MacKay by about 35,000 votes.¹
The US House votes might seem definitively Republican, but Florida law back then (and still now) dictates that candidates with no election opponent at all are automatically declared winners and their names aren’t even printed on the ballot. In 1988, this happened for four Democrats and two Republicans. So, the number of votes for US House candidates are skewed somewhat toward Republicans. If votes were cast for these candidates, the total number of votes for Democrats and Republicans would likely be a lot closer, possibly even slightly in favor of Democrats.
Then, in the 1990s, the Republican Party established itself as the more powerful of the two major parties in the state. Democrats were still sometimes winning US Senate seats and the state’s electoral votes for president, but Republicans took a majority of the state’s congressional delegation in 1990, the first time they had done so since 1874. That precipitated a Republican majority emerging in the state senate in 1994, a Republican majority beginning in the state house in 1996, and Jeb Bush becoming governor in 1998. All of those are still ongoing streaks for the Republican Party, and it began with the change in the state’s US House delegation.
Idaho (1990)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in Idaho in the 1990 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1980–1988) in Idaho, Democrats won three out of 10 total contests.
In the succeeding five US House elections (1992–2000), Democrats only won one out of 10 contests.
Most of Idaho’s political history has generally been rough on Democrats. Democrats have won a US House seat 29 times while Republicans have done so 94 times. Democratic presidential candidates haven’t won the state since 1964, and the last time before that was 1948. They’ve only won a state senate majority 10 times and a state house majority seven times (out of 67 total state legislative elections). They have also only taken 17 of the 48 gubernatorial elections Idaho has held since becoming a state.
That’s not to say that Idaho Democrats haven’t had some bright spots. They won six straight gubernatorial elections from 1970 to 1990. Coinciding with that time frame — and more relevant to this article — they won at least one of the two US House seats each election from 1984 to 1992. In 1990, Democrats Larry LaRocco and Richard Stallings took both of them, the last time the party had the majority of the delegation.
But the state was already on its way to a deep shade of red. Republicans have increased their state legislative majority in both the house and senate since then. They’ve won every US Senate race from 1978 to the present. And in the case of the US House, since 1990, Democrats have only won a single seat each in 1992 and 2008.
South Carolina (1990)
The following chart shows statistics for federal offices in South Carolina in the 1990 election, as well as the total votes for the parties as a whole and for the winners from each party.
In the prior five US House elections (1980–1988) in South Carolina, Democrats won 16 out of 30 total contests.
In the succeeding five US House elections (1992–2000), Democrats only won 11 out of 30 contests.
Like Florida, South Carolina was once part of the Democratic bastion that the South used to be. During the Reconstruction Era, Republicans were still a major presence at all levels of government in Southern states, including South Carolina. From 1868 (the year South Carolina was readmitted to the Union) to 1874, Republicans dominated state and federal government offices in South Carolina, winning all four gubernatorial elections, all but one US House contest, and supermajorities in the state house and state senate.
But when Reconstruction ended in the late 1870s, Democrats quickly seized the reins of South Carolina politics. From 1878 to 1892, they won 49 of 52 total contests for the US House. From 1894 to 1964, they won all 235 contests. Democrats were similarly prepotent in other offices. They regularly took over 90% of seats in the state legislative chambers (including all of them from 1904 to 1964), and 37 consecutive gubernatorial elections.
In 1966, Republicans finally started to break through in South Carolina. That year, they won their first popular election for the US Senate in the regularly-scheduled election (and came close to winning the special election for the state’s other US Senate seat). They won 17 of the 124 state house seats and six of the 50 state senate seats — a far cry from a majority, but a major jump after not winning a single state legislative seat in 60 years. Lastly, they took their first US House victory in over 70 years.
It still took some time for Republicans to become the more powerful of the two major parties in South Carolina, but the ball had started rolling. They took a majority of the state’s US House delegation in 1980, the first time they had done so in over 100 years (1876). Democrats were able to take back a majority in the 1986, 1988, and 1990 elections, but Republicans split the delegation at three seats apiece in 1992. Then Republicans took back the majority of the delegation in 1994, and have held onto it ever since.
Could We See Any of These Partisan Streaks End in the Near Future?
It’s almost definite that all of these streaks will continue through 2024.
Theoretically, one might think that Idaho and Wyoming have a chance simply due to the fact that they have so few seats (two and one, respectively). Yet those states’ electorates (i.e., eligible voters) are substantially Republican.
- In Idaho, even with unaffiliated voters taking up a large chunk of the electorate, Republican voters are still a majority in both the 1st and 2nd congressional districts. As of July 2, 2024, Republicans also outnumber Democrats almost 6:1 in the 1st district and almost 4:1 in the 2nd district. In the last five congressional elections (2014–2022), Republican candidates in the general election have all won at least 60% of the vote.
- In Wyoming, everyone votes on the only US House seat there. As of July 1, 2024, Republicans make up 80.99% of the electorate in the state, and outnumber Democrats by over a 7:1 advantage.
The picture is not much prettier for Democrats in the other four states showcased here.
- Florida’s electorate has become even more considerably Republican in the past few years. To take a majority of that congressional delegation, Democrats need to win another seven seats while keeping all of the ones they have now. There has never been such a big swing in partisanship for the US House in Florida’s history — not even close. And the Florida Democratic Party has had struggles with turnout for over 20 years now.
- South Carolina does not track voters by party affiliation, but one look at its election trends in the 21st century shows a definitive increase in Republican representation. Democrat Jim Clyburn will almost definitely hold onto his US House seat, but Democrats would need to take another three of the six seats in South Carolina to have a majority of the delegation.
- Kansas’ Secretary of State website doesn’t appear to show partisanship of voters by congressional district. But given how much Kansas Democrats have struggled in the US House for over 100 years, there is little reason to think they will take three of the four seats in that chamber for Kansas. Democrat Sharice Davids will probably hold onto her seat, though.
- Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District could possibly be won by a Democrat. The single electoral vote for that district in 2020 was awarded to Joe Biden (Maine and Nebraska’s electoral votes are not winner-take-all). But winning two of the US House seats in Nebraska is a tall task for Democrats.
The trend for all these states has mostly been more and more Republican. Even if you break the electorate down by districts, it is still a virtual certainty that these six states’ US House delegations will be majority Republican for the foreseeable future.
- Buddy Mackay would later on serve as Lawton Chiles’ lieutenant governor, then as governor upon Chiles’ death in the last month of his term.
