The Current Longest Partisan Droughts in US Elections #4: US Senate Seats (Republicans)
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Every election, most attention is paid to the elections for offices where there is a chance of a close election and/or one that could flip to a different party than the current officeholder’s party. And that makes sense: We naturally want to know where the greatest competition is.
But what about those offices were one party or the other just can’t make a breakthrough?
In many contests at the federal, state, and local levels of governments, there is an unfortunate lack of competition. No matter what happens, one party is practically guaranteed to win that office. Or it can be occasionally competitive, but one party just can’t quite break through. Even so, studying where the lack of electoral competition is, and how it came to be, can be just as interesting as where the most competition is.
As I started writing an article about the longest partisan win streaks in US elections, it became apparent that my initial scope was far too large for a single article. Even if I simply divided it by the type of office (e.g. president, US Senate), it’s a lot to take in. So, this series is going to be broken up into multiple but frequent entries, by type of office and by party, shown in the list below. Each office will first look at Democratic droughts and then Republican droughts.
- Parts 1 and 2: States’ Electoral Votes for President
- Parts 3 and 4: US Senate Seats
- Parts 5 and 6: US House Congressional Delegations by State
- Parts 7 and 8: Governors’ Races
- Parts 9 and 10: State House Majorities
- Parts 11 and 12: State Senate Majorities
Each of these posts examines the states with the top five longest droughts each for Democrats, and then Republicans, in each post’s respective type of office (unless more states are tied for a spot in the top 5). Included are the primary and supplemental sources for the data I used to compile the information, political contexts surrounding the elections, other nuances specific to these elections, and a brief description of what other data is shown for these offices.
Today’s post is part 4, continuing the examination of partisan droughts for US Senate seats, this time for the Republican Party.
Primary Source(s) for Data
The primary source for my data comes from Congressional Quarterly’s (CQ) Guide to U.S. Elections, 3rd Edition. For checking more recent elections, I used the respective states’ Departments of Elections’ election results archives and the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives’ official vote counts for federal elections from 1920 to the present.
I also use some supplemental info to further establish context, such as gubernatorial and state legislative partisanship, from several other resources.
- Party Affiliations in the State Legislatures: A Year By Year Summary, 1796–2006 by Michael J. Dubin
- Ballotpedia pages on state legislative chambers’ election results from 2007 to the present
- The U.S. Elections Atlas compilation of various elections for the states
- The presidential election results archive from The American Presidency Project
Longest Republican Droughts
The US Senate has only been elected by the public since the 17th Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified in 1913. (Previously, they were chosen by state legislatures.) So, the only elections being discussed for context are those following the 17th Amendment. US Senate seats are six-year terms and are broken up into Classes 1, 2, and 3. Class 1 seats are up in a given year, followed by Class 2 seats two years later, and then Class 3 seats another two years after that.
Hawaii (1970, Class 1)
Hawaii is one of the most Democratic states, both today and historically.
- For governor, it’s voted for Democrats every time with the exceptions of voting for Republicans in 1959 (the year it became a state), 2002, and 2006.
- The only time Republicans had a majority in either state legislative chamber was in the state senate in 1959.
- The only Republican to win a US House election was Patricia Saiki, who took one of the two seats in 1986 and 1988.
- Republican presidential candidates have won the state’s electoral votes only two times (Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984).
One bright spot for Hawaii Republicans is that they managed to win three of the first six U.S. Senate elections there. However, just like with the US House, there is only one Republican to have ever won in the US Senate in Hawaii: Hiram Fong. Fong had lengthy experience in state politics before being elected to Congress. He had served as a vice speaker and speaker of the legislature, and vice president of the 1950 Territorial Constitutional Convention, back when Hawaii still had territorial status.
Fong won three elections for US Senate, despite being a Republican statewide candidate in a very Democratic state. He defeated Democrats Frank Fasi by 5.8 percentage points in 1959, Thomas P. Gill by 6.6 points in 1964, and Cecil Heftel by 3.2 points in 1970. Impressively, in the coinciding presidential election in 1964, Fong won by a comfortable margin even though Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Republican Barry Goldwater by a whopping 57.6 points in Hawaii.
Fong would win again in 1970, but declined to seek reelection in 1976. With him went any chance for Republicans to win the seat again. Democrat Spark Matsunaga won by 13.1 points against Republican William F. Quinn. Matsunaga would pour it on in his reelection bids, winning by 63.1 points in 1982 and by 76.5 points in 1988. In the other US Senate seat, Dan Inouye had already begun what would be a nearly 50-year tenure in the chamber, claiming huge margins of victory himself as well.
The 1970 U.S. Senate election in Hawaii had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- Hiram L. Fong (Republican): 124,163 votes (51.6%)
- Cecil Heftel (Democrat): 116,597 votes (48.4%)
New Jersey (1972, Class 2)
All the way back before Jersey natives Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi hit the bigtime in the music industry, Republicans were a regular fixture for the state in the US Senate. They won 16 of the first 19 elections for the US Senate in the state by the public (1916–1954), which included several special elections. In that timeframe, Republicans also nearly always had majorities, oftentimes large ones, in both chambers of the state legislature as well as the state’s delegation to the US House.
The most successful Republican US Senator from New Jersey, by far, was Clifford Case. Case first came into the chamber following his victory in 1954, a tight contest against Democrat Charles R. Howell that was decided by less than 3,400 votes and only 0.2 percentage points. After that, though, Case would easily win reelection in his three successive bids: By 12.5 points (1960), 23.0 points (1966), and 28.0 points (1972).
Case ran for a fifth term in 1978, but wouldn’t even make it to the general election, which is rather unusual for such a long-tenured official running for reelection to the same seat. He was bounced in the Republican Primary by Jeffrey Bell by 1.4 points. Bell would go on to lose to Democrat Bill Bradley by 12.2 points in the general election.
Would Case have been able to keep the seat for Republicans had he not lost in the primary? It’s possible, but New Jersey Democrats had already been gaining strength. Case’s Senate counterpart in the Class 1 seat in New Jersey for most of his tenure, Democrat Harrison Williams, Jr., won elections in 1958, 1964, 1970, and 1976, including a couple blowouts. Democrats were also starting to consistently win more US House seats in New Jersey and more often taking majorities in the state legislature. Even as an incumbent, it would’ve been a tall order for Case to overcome the Democratic trend.
The 1972 US Senate election in New Jersey had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- Clifford P. Case (Republican): 1,743,854 votes (62.5%)
- Paul J. Krebs (Democrat): 963,573 votes (34.5%)
Maryland (1980, Class 3)
It’s been tough sledding for Republicans throughout most of Maryland’s history, especially at the state level. At most, they’ve won two consecutive gubernatorial elections, and their wins have mostly just been short breaks between long Democratic streaks. Republicans also haven’t won majorities in the state house or the state senate since 1897 and 1917, respectively. They’ve arguably been a little bit more successful at the federal level in Maryland, but even that’s debatable.
One bright spot for Maryland Republicans, however, was the tenure of US Senator Charles McCurdy Mathias, Jr. Mathias, a US Navy veteran, served in the US House before shifting to the Senate following his 1968 victory by 8.7 points, the same year Richard Nixon lost Maryland to Hubert Humphrey by 1.7 points (though Nixon ultimately won the overall presidential election). Mathias would follow that up with dominant wins in 1974 by 14.6 points and in 1980 by 32.4 points.
Mathias declined to run for reelection in 1986. Would he have won if he did? That’s obviously speculation at this point, but it can be argued one way or the other.
The Democratic opponent that Mathias beat in 1974, Barbara Mikulski, won the 1986 election by 21.4 points and went on to serve in the seat for 30 years, so it’s difficult to say whether he would’ve beaten her again. The other US Senator for Maryland, Democrat Paul Sarbanes, won in blowouts in 1976, 1982, and 1988 on the way to his own 30-year stint in that chamber. Democrats also won eight straight gubernatorial elections from 1970 to 1998, and their supermajority grip on the state legislature was even tighter at the end of Mathias’ tenure in the US Senate than at the beginning. Such long partisan odds can only be overcome for so long.
The 1980 US Senate election in Maryland had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- Charles McC. Mathias Jr. (Republican): 850,970 votes (66.2%)
- Edward T. Conroy (Democrat): 435,118 votes (33.8%)
Connecticut (1982, Class 1)
Connecticut is a solidly blue state today, but in days of yore the Republican Party was a potent force. For example, they won the first seven elections for US Senate by the public (1914–1928). In that same time frame, they either won four or all five US House seats each election, all eight gubernatorial elections, and held supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
After that time, the Democratic Party in Connecticut starting gaining strength and accumulating more victories (though Republicans were still winning plenty of elections, and still held a firm grip on the state house). Fast forward to the 1950s/1960s, and election returns show how much of a force Democrats had become in the state. They had started to consistently take or hold onto state legislative majorities, won four straight elections for governor from 1954 to 1966, and took all or almost all of the US House seats in the late 1950s through the 1960s. Then Democrats won four consecutive US Senate elections from 1958 to 1968.
The Republican to break that US Senate streak in 1970 turned out to be Lowell Weicker, Jr. Born in France to American parents, Weicker attended high school and college in the states and served in the US Army and Army Reserve. He’d serve in local and state-level office before getting to the federal level. Following one term in the US House, he ran for and won a three-way race for the US Senate seat in 1970.
Despite Democrats repeatedly winning the other US Senate seat, Weicker won reelection in 1976 by 16.5 percentage points and again in 1982 by 4.3 points. Yet his 1988 bid was unsuccessful, as he lost a tight race to Joe Lieberman by 0.8 points. Republicans haven’t even come close to winning a US Senate seat in Connecticut since then.
(Interestingly, both Weicker and Lieberman exhibited an independent streak. In 1990, Weicker won the governor’s race as the candidate for the A Connecticut Party that he founded and appointed his 1976 Democratic opponent, Gloria Schaffer, to a state executive position. Joe Lieberman won reelection to the US Senate in 1994 under both the Democratic and A Connecticut Party labels, and in 2006 under the Connecticut for Lieberman label. He also ran as Democrat Al Gore’s running mate in the 2000 presidential election but almost became Republican John McCain’s running mate in the 2008 election.)
The 1982 US Senate election in Connecticut had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- Lowell P. Weicker, Jr. (Republican): 545,987 votes (50.4%)
- Anthony T. Moffett (Democrat): 499,146 votes (46.1%)
California (1988)
California was a more purplish state, but still leaning toward blue, in the late 1980s. At the state and federal levels, Democrats were consistently winning most of the districted seats — i.e., US House, state house, and state senate. Yet Republicans were still winning a fair number of statewide races — i.e., president, US Senate, and US House.
One of these Republican US Senators was Pete Wilson. A former US Marine, then-San Diego Mayor Wilson faced off against then-governor Democrat Edmund Gerald Brown Jr., better known as Jerry Brown, in the 1982 US Senate election. (Jerry Brown would eventually return to the governor’s seat when he won the 2010 and 2014 elections for it.) The election was to replace Republican Samuel Hayakawa, a one-term US Senator who declined to run for reelection. Wilson defeated Brown by 6.7 points.
Wilson followed that up with an 8.8 point margin of victory in 1988 against Democrat Leo T. McCarthy. Wilson’s success in statewide elections would continue but not in the US Senate: Wilson would resign his seat in that chamber after winning the 1990 governor’s race, and would win reelection there in 1994. (Interestingly, Wilson’s lieutenant governor for his first term was McCarthy, but in California, governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately, making it possible to have a Republican for one and a Democrat for the other.)
But that was the end of Republican success in US Senate seats in California. Wilson’s seat was filled by a special election that was won handily by Democrat Dianne Feinstein. Barbara Boxer also won her first term for the other US Senate seat. The 1988 election also turned out to be the last time a Republican presidential candidate carried the state’s electoral votes.
The 1988 US Senate election in California had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- Pete Wilson (Republican): 5,143,409 votes (52.8%)
- Leo T. McCarthy (Democrat): 4,287,253 votes (44.0%)
Could We See Any of These Partisan Streaks End in the Near Future?
All five of these states are having US Senate elections in 2024, but only of them has a reasonable chance of being won by a Republican, and thus ending that party’s drought in said states. These six major election forecasters see California, Connecticut, Hawaii, and New Jersey as practically done deals for Democrats, putting those states at the highest ranks for likelihood of being won by that party.
Maryland is where predictions become tricky. Most of the forecasters haven’t updated their prognostications to reflect it accordingly, but Larry Hogan’s surprise bid for the US Senate is going to shift their predictions for Maryland at least somewhat in Republicans’ favor. Despite being a deep blue state, Larry Hogan won two terms as governor — only the second Republican to do so in the state’s history — in 2014 and 2018. His 2018 reelection was by 11.9 points. He was one of if not the most popular governor in the nation when he was in office, garnering wide swathes of support even amongst Democrats.
If Hogan wasn’t in the race, there would be very little chance that Republicans could take the seat. But it also doesn’t mean that the race is now automatically in favor of Republicans. Democratic voters have only become more numerous in Maryland since Hogan was governor. Also, despite the grievances between the two due to Hogan’s frequent criticisms of him, Donald Trump endorsed Hogan. Given Trump’s considerable unpopularity in Maryland, now Hogan has a tightrope to walk between courting Trump voters and eschewing Trump/courting Democrats.
Other than that, it’s hard to see any of these seats being won by a Republican any time soon, as there are increasing Democratic trends in California, Connecticut, Hawaii, and New Jersey. Perhaps in 2026 or 2028, something unusual will happen in these states that will favor Republicans. But as of now, the only state that has a real chance of ending Republican droughts for a state’s US Senate seats anytime soon is Maryland in 2024.
