The Current Longest Partisan Droughts in US Elections #3: US Senate Seats (Democrats)
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Every election, most attention is paid to the elections for offices where there is a chance of a close election and/or one that could flip to a different party than the current officeholder’s party. And that makes sense: We naturally want to know where the greatest competition is.
But what about those offices were one party or the other just can’t make a breakthrough?
In many contests at the federal, state, and local levels of governments, there is an unfortunate lack of competition. No matter what happens, one party is practically guaranteed to win that office. Or it can be occasionally competitive, but one party just can’t quite break through. Even so, studying where the lack of electoral competition is, and how it came to be, can be just as interesting as where the most competition is.
As I started writing an article about the longest partisan win streaks in U.S. elections, it became apparent that my initial scope was far too large for a single article. Even if I simply divided it by the type of office (e.g. president, U.S. Senate), it’s a lot to take in. So, this series is going to be broken up into multiple but frequent entries, by type of office and by party, shown in the list below. Each office will first look at Democratic droughts and then Republican droughts.
- Parts 1 and 2: States’ Electoral Votes for President
- Parts 3 and 4: U.S. Senate Seats
- Parts 5 and 6: U.S. House Congressional Delegations by State
- Parts 7 and 8: Governors’ Races
- Parts 9 and 10: State House Majorities
- Parts 11 and 12: State Senate Majorities
Each of these posts examines the states with the top five longest droughts each for Democrats, and then Republicans, in each post’s respective type of office (unless a bunch more states are tied for a spot in the top 5). Included are the primary and supplemental sources for the data I used to compile the information, political contexts surrounding the elections, other nuances specific to these elections, and a brief description of what other data is shown for these offices.
Today’s post is part 3, looking at which states that Democrats have struggled the longest to win U.S. Senate seats in.
Primary Source(s) for Data
The primary source for my data comes from Congressional Quarterly’s (CQ) Guide to U.S. Elections, 3rd Edition. For checking more recent elections (to ensure partisan streaks/droughts were still going), I used the respective states’ Departments of Elections’ election results archives and the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives’ official vote counts for federal elections from 1920 to the present.
I also use some supplemental info to further establish context, such as gubernatorial and state legislative partisanship, from several other resources.
- Party Affiliations in the State Legislatures: A Year By Year Summary, 1796–2006 by Michael J. Dubin
- Ballotpedia pages on state legislative chambers’ election results from 2007 to the present
- The U.S. Elections Atlas compilation of various elections for the states
Longest Democratic Droughts
The U.S. Senate has only been elected by the public since the 17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was ratified in 1913. (Previously, they were chosen by state legislatures.) So, the only elections being discussed for context are those following the 17th Amendment. U.S. Senate seats are six-year terms and are broken up into Classes 1, 2, and 3. Class 1 seats are up in a given year, followed by Class 2 seats two years later, and then Class 3 seats another two years after that.
On the Democratic side, the longest drought by far has been for Kansas, which they haven’t won since the Great Depression.
Kansas (1932, Class 3)
The 1932 election happened just three years into the Great Depression. In 1930 and 1932, the Democratic Party made huge gains in federal and state-level elected offices. This U.S. Senate seat in Kansas was one of them, at least for a short period. Incumbent Senator George McGill won a special election in 1930, which was called after Republican Charles Curtis resigned after he had been elected vice president to Herbert Hoover.
McGill then vied for a full term in the U.S. Senate in the 1932 election, which was competitive like his 1930 victory. Notably, the 1932 victory came against Republican Ben Paulen, who had been governor of the state only a couple years earlier. That same year, Democrat Franklin Roosevelt routed Hoover in the presidential election, including a 9.5 percentage point win to take the Kansas’ Electoral College votes.
But whatever bump McGill received from the Democratic wave in the early 1930s didn’t last long. In 1938, he lost by a wide margin to Republican Clyde M. Reed. McGill would wage similarly unsuccessful campaigns for Kansas’ other U.S. Senate seat in 1942, 1948, and 1954. McGill doesn’t only have the distinction of being the last Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas — so long ago that nobody who is alive in the U.S. today was old enough to vote then. He is also one of only two Democrats to ever win an election for one of those seats, the other being William H. Thompson in 1912.
The 1932 U.S. Senate election in Kansas had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- George McGill (Democrat): 328,992 votes (45.7%)
- Ben S. Paulen (Republican): 302,809 votes (42.0%)
- George Alfred Brown (Independent): 65,583 votes (9.1%)
Utah (1970, Class 1)
When the U.S. Senate became elected by the public, the Class 1 seat in Utah was initially dominated by Democrats, as William H. King won in 1916, 1922, 1928, and 1934. Abe Murdock would keep the seat for Democrats in 1940, but was defeated by Republican Arthur Watkins in 1946. Then Watkins won in 1952, only to fall to Democrat Frank E. Moss in 1958 in a close race.
Moss won handily in 1964, and in 1970 faced off against Republican Laurence J. Burton, a four-term member of the U.S. House. Burton was a fairly popular congressman in his district, and his increasing popularity there was perhaps an impetus for him to run against Moss. Yet Burton couldn’t win enough votes in the highly-populated Salt Like and Utah Counties, and fell far short of defeating Moss in 1970. Moss’ success, however, also wouldn’t last much longer: In 1976, he would lose to Orrin Hatch, who would eventually serve in that office for over 40 years.
By the time of Frank Moss’ defeat, though, Utah Republicans were already showing signs of becoming the preeminent party power in the state. Wallace F. Bennett had already won the other U.S. Senate seat in 1950, 1956, and 1962. Then Republicans gained majorities in the state legislature in the late 1970s that they haven’t let go of since then. Democrats last won the governorship in 1980. And to top it all off, Utah had already started their current streak of voting for Republican presidential candidates in 1968. The writing was already on the wall for Moss.
The 1970 U.S. Senate election in Utah had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- Frank E. Moss (Democrat): 210,207 votes (56.2%)
- Laurence J. Burton (Republican): 159,004 votes (42.5%)
Wyoming (1970, Class 1)
While Wyoming is one of the most Republican states of today — and in some ways has been that for past chunks of its history — the Class 1 U.S. Senate seat back then was tightly held onto by Democrats. Since U.S. Senate seats started being elected by the public, the only time the Class 1 seat was won by a Republican (prior to the 1970 election) was Frank A. Barrett in 1952. Barrett had to resign as governor to take the Senate seat, but in 1958, he would be defeated in a close race (1.6 percentage points) by Democrat Gale McGee.
McGee notched another Senate victory under his belt in 1964, winning by a more comfortable 8.0 percentage point margin against one-term U.S. House Representative John S. Wold. The two of them had a rematch in 1970, but McGee would win again by an even wider margin of 11.6 points, joining the previous Democratic occupants of the Class I seat, John B. Kendrick and Joseph C. O’Mahoney, as at least three-time election winners of the seat.
But McGee wouldn’t be able to pull it off a fourth time. In 1976, he faced Republican Malcolm Wallop (who would also go on to win the Class 1 seat three times), who beat him by 9.2 percentage points. It didn’t help McGee that then-President Gerald Ford, a Republican, won the state that year by almost 20 points. (Ford, however, would ultimately lose the overall election to Democrat Jimmy Carter.) Although ticket splitting — the act of voting for one party for one office but voting another party for a different office — was more common back then than it is now, it was highly difficult for McGee to overcome that for his own race.
That wasn’t the total end of competitive Democrats in Wyoming’s statewide elections. They won the next five governor’s elections, from 1974 to 1990, as well as the 2002 and 2006 contests. But apart from those instances and some other exceptions, the state has been staunchly Republican.
The 1970 U.S. Senate election in Wyoming had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- Gale McGee (Democrat): 67,207 votes (55.8%)
- John S. Wold (Republican): 53,279 votes (44.2%)
Idaho (1974, Class 3)
The history of Idaho politics is one of mostly struggles for Democrats. Their greatest success came in the early 1930s during the Great Depression, when they did the following:
- Won the four governor’s races from 1930 to 1936
- Won state legislative supermajorities in the 1932, 1934, and 1936 elections
- Won the state for president five straight times from 1932 to 1948.
Other than those cases, though, there haven’t been many other strings of successes in Idaho for Democrats to hang their hat on. For U.S. Senate seats in Idaho, they only won nine of the first 27 elections. But there is an interesting dichotomy between Idaho’s Class 2 and Class 3 seats. Democrats have only won the Class 2 seat one time in elections by the public, and even then it was a short-lived victory. Bert Miller won it in 1948 but died not even a year into his term, leading to a special election won by Republican Henry Dworshak.
The Class 3 seat, on the other hand, was won by Democrats in eight of its first 13 elections. The last four of those were won by Frank Church, a lawyer who served in the U.S. Army during World War II. Church came into office by defeating then-incumbent Republican Herman Welker — who was also a lawyer and military veteran, serving in the U.S. Air Corps (which later became the Air Force) — in the 1956 election. Welker coasted to victory in his 1950 election by 23.4 percentage points, only to get trounced by Church by 17.5 points in 1956.
Church seemed to be a quite popular U.S. Senator, judging by the fact he usually won elections handily. He even had an institute at Boise State University named after him. His closest win by far was in 1962, defeating Republican Jack Hawley by 9.4 points. In 1974, Church went up against Robert L. Smith, notching another comfortable win (14.0 points). Church’s successes, however, ran out in the 1980 election, losing a tight election against Republican Steven D. Symms by 0.9 points. Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate seat in Idaho since then (though they did win six straight governor’s races from 1970 to 1990).
The 1974 U.S. Senate election in Idaho had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- Frank Church (Democrat): 145,140 votes (56.1%)
- Robert L. Smith (Republican): 109,072 votes (42.1%)
Mississippi (1982, Class I)
Incumbent Senator John C. Stennis had occupied his office for a very long time before the 1982 election: He was first elected in a close 1947 special election against four other Democrats. No Republicans ran back then in Mississippi because, like in much of the South, it was impossible for them to be competitive in statewide elections, and nearly impossible to compete in district-based offices like the state legislature and the U.S. House. The Democratic Party did all of the following things in Mississippi:
- Won the first 23 public elections for U.S. Senate (1916–1976)
- Won all 28 governor’s elections from 1877 to 1987
- Won every U.S. House seat from 1884 to 1962 (which was five to eight total seats depending on the timeframe)
- Won every state house seat from 1903 to 1967 and every state senate seat from 1887 to 1967
Stennis then won in 1952, 1958, 1964, and 1976 without any challengers, and in 1970 he shellacked an independent by winning 88.4% of the vote. Undoubtedly, part of his success — at least early on — was his ardent support of segregation. In 1982, his last run for the U.S. Senate, Stennis faced his toughest test against Haley Barbour . . . and still won by a whopping 28.4 percentage points. (Barbour would later go on to win the governor’s race in 2003 and 2007.)
Would Stennis have won again in 1988, and thus have made the Democratic drought for U.S. Senate in Mississippi shorter, if he ran once more? That’s hard to say as it is pure speculation now. The incumbency advantage is powerful and he was in office for over 40 years in 1988. On the other hand, Republican Trent Lott would take over Stennis’ seat by winning the 1988 election by about 7.8 percentage points. Then in 1990, Republican Thad Cochran, who passed away in 2019, won his second term for the state’s other U.S. Senate seat without opposition. Stennis might not have been able to compete any more against the rise of the Republican Party in Mississippi.
The 1982 U.S. Senate election in Mississippi had the following results according to the CQ Guide:
- John C. Stennis (Democrat): 414,099 votes (64.2%)
- Haley Barbour (Republican): 230,927 votes (35.8%)
Could We See Any of These Partisan Streaks End in the Near Future?
Of the five states examined in this article, only Mississippi, Utah, and Wyoming have U.S. Senate elections this year. Major election forecasters don’t see any sort of real competition for those seats in 2024, instead being firmly in hand for Republicans. So, those Democratic droughts are virtually certain to continue through this year.
After 2024, Wyoming and Mississippi will have U.S. Senate elections in 2026 while Utah will be in 2028, but those are highly unlikely to be competitive as well. That’s mostly due to the sheer number of Republicans in those states. Mississippi does not register voters by party affiliation (though it’s safe to say that there are a lot of Republicans there), but we can see the latest numbers for Utah and Wyoming.
- Utah (as of June 10, 2024):
993,408 (50.42%) Republicans
276,040 (14.01%) Democrats
574,309 (29.15%) Unaffiliated
126,548 (64.23%) Third Parties - Wyoming (as of June 1, 2024):
178,992 (81.04%) Republicans
24,325 (11.01%) Democrats
16,059 (7.27%) Unaffiliated
1,487 (0.67%) Third Parties
It’s not impossible, but it is incredibly difficult for a statewide Democratic candidate to overcome these partisan gaps that appear to be only growing in those states.
It’s a similar story for Kansas and Idaho, where the next U.S. Senate election is 2026. Here are their latest voter registration statistics by party.
- Kansas (as of May 2024):
876,627 (44.46%) Republicans
504,736 (25.60%) Democrats
566,113 (28.71%) Unaffiliated
24,304 (1.23%) Third Parties - Idaho (as of June 6, 2024):
600,794 (59.70%) Republicans
125,818 (12.50%) Democrats
263,940 (26.23%) Unaffiliated
15,815 (1.57%) Third Parties
Something that Kansas Democrats have going for them, however, is that Laura Kelly won the governor’s race for them in 2018 and 2022. So, there is notable recent precedent for that state to elect a Democrat in a statewide race. However, she is so far an exception, not a rule. If Kelly decides to run for that 2026 U.S. Senate seat, she might be the best chance Kansas Democrats have to prevent a century-long losing streak for there.
In any case, Democrats in those five states have very steep hills to climb — and they’re generally getting steeper.
The next installment, part 4, will continue the theme of U.S. Senate elections, but this time will shift to where Republicans have had the longest struggles.
