Split-Ticket Votes in the 2024 Election

Source: Politico. “Presidential Election Results 2024: Electoral Votes & Map by State.” https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/ (accessed November 13, 2024).

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In memory of one of my best friends, James, who passed away two weeks ago.

The dust from the 2024 election has yet to fully settle. As of this writing, there are a few undecided US House races, as is the case for plenty of state and local level elections. Votes are still being counted. Election results still have to be certified.

Beyond the obviously noteworthy aspects of who already won or lost, however, we have some major takeaways we can observe. One such takeaway is notable instances of split-ticket voting. Split-ticket voting refers to when voters choose a candidate from one party for one office but also choose a candidate from another party for a different office on that same ballot. For example, voters might vote a Republican for president but a Democrat for US Senate.

Depending on the elected office and the geographical area it covers, we can observe split-ticket voting based on state, county, congressional district, state legislative district, precinct, and/or municipal election returns. And even if voters choose two candidates from the same party in different elections, a sizable difference in support can indicate ticket-splitting (e.g. a Republican for president gets 60% of the vote, but a Republican for US Senate only wins 54%). Ticket-splitting has decreased in recent years, but it still occurs.

Where are some of the major instances where we’ve already seen ticket-splitting happen? Some of the exact numbers are inevitably going to change as vote-counting gets wrapped up and eventually certified, but the basic takeaways are going to be basically the same.

Arizona: REP Donald Trump (President), DEM Ruben Gallego (US Senate)

After winning Arizona in 2016 but losing it in 2020, Donald Trump reclaimed the state in 2024. While Trump only lost the state in 2020 by 0.3 percentage points, he somewhat handily won it over Kamala Harris this election.

Here is where the election results stand thus far via Politico:

But Democrats did not walk away from The Copper State empty-handed. Although the party lost overall control of the US Senate, Ruben Gallego defeated Kari Lake, the latter of whom ardently supports Trump. Gallego successfully made the jump from the US House to the US Senate, as many US Senators have done.

From Politico:

Lake won roughly 167,000 fewer votes than her fellow Republican Trump did. Meanwhile, Gallego won about 91,000 more votes than his fellow Democrat Harris did.

The biggest reason for this discrepancy is the fact that Maricopa County, the largest county in Arizona, was the only county in the state to split the vote between the two offices. Based on current numbers from Politico, Trump won 51.2% of Maricopa County’s vote for president, but Gallego won 51.5% of it for US Senate.

All in all, Lake could not take advantage of being in the same party as the presidential candidate who won the state nor the advantage in partisan voter registration, which grew even more in favor of Republicans from 2020 to 2024.

• Registered Republicans went from 1,508,778 voters in the 2020 election (35.24% of the total electorate) to 1,562,091 voters in the 2024 election (35.77%).
• In that same span, registered Democrats went from 1,378,324 voters (32.20% of the total electorate) down to 1,266,536 voters (29.00%).

Michigan: REP Donald Trump (President), DEM Elissa Slotkin (US Senate)

Michigan was another state that Trump won in 2016 but closely lost in 2020. But unlike Arizona — which voted Republican for president 5 straight times from 2000 to 2016 — Michigan voted Democrat for president 6 straight times from 1992 to 2012. The 2024 presidential race was much closer than in 2020, and this time Trump came out on top.

From Politico:

Yet as with Arizona, voters in Michigan went the other way for the US Senate, electing current Democratic US Representative Elissa Slotkin over Republican Mike Rogers in a nail-biter. Although the current vote margin is within 0.5 percentage points, it appears that Rogers is not going to ask for a recount (though that could change).

From Politico:

While Slotkin did not win quite as many votes for US Senate as her fellow Democrat Harris did for president (about 16,000 less), Rogers won considerably fewer votes than Trump (about 117,000 less). There are several key areas where Slotkin outperformed Harris (and Trump outperformed Rogers) in their respective elections for Democrats. These include the following:

• Trump and Slotkin both won Muskegon County, the only county in Michigan that split between the parties for president and US Senate. For president, 50.1% of the vote was for Trump and 48.4% was for Harris — a 1.7 point margin. For US Senate, 48.4% of the vote was for Slotkin but only 48.3% was for Rogers — a 0.1 point margin in the opposite partisan direction.
• In Oakland County, the gap between Trump and Harris was smaller than it was between Slotkin and Rogers. For president, Harris won 54.3% and Trump won 43.8% of the vote — a 10.5 point margin. For US Senate, Slotkin won 54.8% and Rogers won 42.7% of the vote — a 12.1 point margin.
• In Wayne County, the gap between Trump and Harris was smaller than it was between Slotkin and Rogers. For president, Harris won 62.7% and Trump won 33.7% of the vote — a 29.0 point margin. For US Senate, Slotkin won 63.4% and Rogers won 31.9% of the vote — a 31.5 point margin.

Nevada: REP Donald Trump (President), DEM Jacky Rosen (US Senate)

Unlike Arizona and Michigan, Nevada was not a state that Trump won in 2016. Before this year, the Silver State hadn’t gone to a Republican presidential candidate since 2004. While Trump lost it by 2.4 points both times in 2016 and 2020, he won it by about 3.1 points in 2024.

From Politico:

But once again, Donald Trump won a state this year that voted for a Democrat for US Senate. Jacky Rosen, the incumbent, first won in 2018 by 5.0 points, unseating then-incumbent Dean Heller. Rosen had a much tougher fight this time, but still won by 1.6 points over Sam Brown.

From Politico:

Nevada is another case where Republicans made a big gain in voter registration between 2020 and 2024. There were 653,429 Republican voters around the 2020 election, while there are 693,394 of them as of November 1, 2024 — nearly a 40,000-voter increase. In contrast, there were 762,460 Democratic voters around the 2020 election but that number dropped to 726,647 of them as of November 1, 2024 — nearly a 36,000-voter decrease.

The two most populous counties in Nevada, Clark and Washoe, went Democrat for both president and US Senate, as highly-populated counties often do. But in those two counties in particular, Trump performed much better for president compared to fellow Republican Sam Brown for US Senate.

• In Clark County (home to a little-known city called Las Vegas), for president, 50.4% of the vote went to Harris while 47.8% went to Trump — a 2.6 point margin. For US Senate, 50.7% of the vote went to Rosen but only 43.5% went to Brown — a 7.2 point margin.
• In Washoe County (home to the “biggest little city in the world,” Reno), for president, 49.2% of the vote went to Harris while 48.5% went to Trump — a 0.7 point margin. For US Senate, 49.9% of the vote went to Rosen but only 44.4% of the vote went to Brown — a 5.5 point margin.

New Hampshire: DEM Kamala Harris (President), REP Kelly Ayotte (Governor)

Here we have a different scenario: Kamala Harris won this state for president, as expected. However, it may have turned out to be closer than many observers thought it would be. In 2020, Biden won the state by 7.4 points, while in 2024 Harris only won it by 2.8 points.

From Politico:

New Hampshire did not have a US Senate race this year, but it had a governor’s race. It’s one of two states (along with Vermont) that have gubernatorial elections every two years instead of four. Former US Senator Kelly Ayotte ran to replace Republican Chris Sununu — the four-term incumbent who declined to run for reelection — and defeated Democrat Joyce Craig.

From Politico:

It’s a stark contrast between the two races in New Hampshire. The presidency was a 2.8 point margin of victory for Democrats, but the governorship was a 9.3 point margin of victory for Republicans.

Ayotte was certainly helped by the shift in party registration amongst voters over the last 4 years. But unlike in the other cases we highlighted earlier, there are both fewer Democrats and fewer Republicans since the last presidential election — in fact, there are about 224,000 fewer total voters in the state. Nevertheless, the decrease has hit Democrats harder than Republicans.

• From November 8, 2020, to September 30, 2024, Democrats dropped from 347,828 to 268,943 voters while Republicans only dropped from 333,165 to 308,223 voters.
• Furthermore, Republicans overtook Democrats in total registration sometime in 2023, and from November 1, 2023, to September 30, 2024, there was an increase of about 39,000 Republicans but only about 4,600 Democrats.

The election results maps from Politico show municipal areas instead of counties. There are a bunch of these that were won by Harris for president but also by Ayotte for governor, though many of these are much more sparsely-populated (with a couple of exceptions listed below).

Let’s look at the most populous areas and compare performances between the two Democrats (Harris and Craig).

• In Concord, Harris won 63.0% of the vote for president but Craig only won 56.7% of the vote for governor.
• In Dover, Harris won 64.8% of the vote for president but Craig only won 58.0% of the vote for governor.
• In Manchester, Harris won 53.2% of the vote for president but Craig only won 47.1% of the vote for governor. Craig also lost the municipality to Ayotte.
• In Nashua, Harris won 55.9% of the vote for president but Craig only won 47.9% of the vote for governor. Craig also lost the municipality to Ayotte.

Wisconsin: REP Donald Trump (President), DEM Tammy Baldwin (US Senate)

Wisconsin was one of the 5 states that Trump won in 2016, lost in 2020, and then won again in 2024. And as with both 2016 and 2020, the 2024 presidential race in The Badger State was within a 1.0 point margin.

From Politico:

On the flip side, Democrat Tammy Baldwin won her third term for US Senate. After winning by 5.6 points in 2012 and 10.8 points in 2018, Baldwin faced her toughest bout yet against Eric Hovde, but still won by 0.9 points. (Hovde, however, is still considering asking for a recount.)

From Politico:

Only one county in the state, Sauk County, split between the parties for the two races, going Republican for president but Democrat for US Senate. Although both races were tight overall in Wisconsin, Sauk County isn’t particularly well-populated, so that area alone didn’t swing the election.

Instead, let’s look at the more populous counties and how they compared in voting between president and US Senate. Once again, we see some key areas where Trump outperformed a fellow Republican for US Senate (and thus where Harris underperformed a fellow Democrat for US Senate).

• In Brown County (home to Green Bay), for president, Trump won 53.1% of the vote while Harris won 45.6% of it — a 7.5 point margin. For US Senate, Hovde only won 51.9% of it while Baldwin won 45.9% of it — a 6.0 point margin.
• In Eau Claire County, for president, Harris won 54.6% of the vote while Trump won 44.0% of it — a 10.6 point margin. For US Senate, Baldwin won 55.2% of the vote but Hovde only won by 42.7% of it — a 12.5 point margin.
• In Kenosha County, for president, Trump won 52.5% of the vote while Harris won 46.2% of it — a 6.3 point margin. For US Senate, Hovde only won 50.5% of the vote while Baldwin won 46.9% of it — a 3.6 point margin.
• In Milwaukee County, for president, Harris won 68.3% of the vote while Trump won 29.8% of it — a 38.5 point margin. For US Senate, Baldwin won 69.1% of the vote but Hovde only won 28.8% of it — a 40.3 point margin.

These aren’t the only instances of split-ticket voting, and we’ll find out about more of them as vote counting is finalized and election results are certified. The reasons listed above for the races we have highlighted only scratch the surface of why we saw ticket-splitting in these instances.

Saying that ticket-splitting is alive and well wouldn’t be entirely accurate. Yet even as the nation becomes more polarized, you can still find some notable instances where voters choose candidates from both parties for different offices.