5 Key Pickup Opportunities Each for Democrats and Republicans in 2024
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The 2024 election is right around the corner. Which party takes control of the presidency, US Senate, US House, certain state legislative chambers, etc. remains to be seen (although some are predictable). What is certain to happen, however, is that some seats that are currently held by Democrats will be taken by Republicans, and some Republican-held seats will be taken by Democrats.
Today’s post looks at where some of these prime opportunities are for both parties, though they are not the only elections to watch out for and they are by no means guaranteed to flip. The criteria for these seats here are simple:
- The contests have to be considered highly competitive (though not necessarily a toss-up). Competitiveness is based on the ratings from six election forecasters: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, CNalysis, Split Ticket, and Elections Daily.
- The contests are for the US Senate, US House, or a governor. (For the US House, competitive contests within the same state on this list are grouped up.) Or it could be control of a state legislative chamber as a whole.
5 Key Pickup Opportunities for Democrats
Democrats have a good chance of taking control of the US House. This will be especially important for them if Republicans take control of the US Senate, as is likely the case. Democrats also have a chance to cut into the majority of governorships that Republicans have.
Texas — US Senate
It’s very unusual for Texas Democrats to be competitive in a statewide election, but such is the case here. Incumbent Republican Ted Cruz is bidding for a third term, facing off against current US House Representative Colin Allred. Cruz’s 2018 victory over Beto O’Rourke (2.6 points) was, at the time, the most expensive congressional race ever. But 2024’s total spending has already surpassed what it was in 2018, showcasing just how heated this campaign is.
While the aforementioned election forecasters all still rate the race as favoring Cruz, Sabato and Elections Daily are a little more sure that the seat will stick with the Republican. If Allred does supplant Cruz, however, it will be the first US Senate race in Texas a Democrat has won since 1988.
Arizona — 1st and 6th US House Districts
In the 1st District, incumbent Republican David Schweikert is taking on Democrat Amish Shah. Although Schweikert has been in the US House since 2010, the last round of redistricting changed his district’s boundaries to become much more competitive. He only won by 0.8 percentage points in 2022.
In the 6th District, incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani is facing off against Democrat Kirsten Engel in a rematch of their 2022 contest. Ciscomani won that race by only 1.5 points and is seeking his second term in Congress.
If Democrats take control of the US House, that feat will likely include gaining these two seats. With Arizona also being a battleground for president and its open US Senate seat, how Democrats do in those races will have a trickle-down effect on these US House contests.
These two races aren’t just important for Democrats’ quest to take the US House majority, however. In the unlikely (yet still possible) event that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have a tie in the Electoral College (269–269), the presidential election is thrown to the US House, where each state’s delegation to the chamber casts one vote each (for a total of 50) for who should be president. Whichever candidates wins a majority of these votes is declared the winner. This is called a contingent election.
If the other US House seats in Arizona stay with their same party, and Schweikert and Ciscomani lose reelection, the Arizona delegation would become 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans. As a result, Arizona’s delegation would undoubtedly cast a vote Kamala Harris.
Montana — 1st US House District
Incumbent REP Ryan Zinke, a former secretary of the US Department of the Interior under the Trump administration, is running for his second term against Democrat Monica Tranel, a lawyer who has argued at least one case before the Montana Supreme Court. This one is actually a rematch of their 2022 bout, which Zinke won by 3.1 points. Democrats haven’t won a US House seat in Montana since the 1994 election.
This race could have a reciprocal effect on the US Senate race in Montana (discussed more below in Republicans’ prime pickup opportunities). Generally, a race that’s higher on the ballot has a bigger impact on the lower ballot than the other way around — like US Senate over the US House. But in a tight race for the US Senate, the matchup between Zinke and Tranel might also make a big difference on that contest as well.
New Hampshire — Governor
This is the lone gubernatorial election considered truly competitive by the aforementioned election forecasters. (There is an outside chance the Indiana, North Carolina, and Washington races for governor are also competitive.)
Incumbent Republican Chris Sununu, winner of the state’s last 4 governor’s races (the office has 2-year terms), declined to run for reelection. Republican Kelly Ayotte is taking on Democrat Joyce Craig. Ayotte is a former US Senator who lost to current US Senator Maggie Hassan by less than 800 votes. Craig is a former mayor of Manchester, New Hampshire.
Ayotte has several advantages on her side, including greater campaign funds and spending, previous experience running in a statewide election, and a Republican-trending electorate. Craig, however, has the advantage of the state projecting likely Democrat in voting for president, which will have some trickle-down effect on the governor’s race. While split-ticket voting (i.e., voting for a candidate in one party for Contest A and then voting for candidate in a different party for Contest B in the same election) is less common in recent years, it still sometimes happens that a state votes one party for president and a different party for US Senate.
If Democrats do gain the governorship, they will be a step closer to taking a majority of states’ governorships nationwide (they currently have 23 of them).
Arizona — State House and Senate
Arizona’s probably the hottest place to be if you’re a political junkie, and it’s not just because of it’s absurd dry heat. The state is very competitive for president, US Senate, and its 1st and 6th US House Districts. It’s also going to be a dogfight for control of the state legislature.
In Arizona, all state legislators are up for election every 2 years. Both chambers have two of the thinnest partisan majority margins among all state legislatures. Both the state house and state senate are controlled by Republicans, but only by a 31-29 and 16-14 majority, respectively. As a result, Democrats only need a net gain of 2 seats in either chamber to take control of said chamber. Gaining just 4 total state legislative seats could be enough to completely change the whole legislature’s partisan leaning.
That’s especially important both in a contemporary and a historical sense. If Democrats gain majorities in both chambers, it will be the first time Arizona Democrats have had a trifecta (i.e., control of the governorship and both state legislative chambers) in a very, very long time.
- The last time they won a state house majority was in the 1964 election.
- The last time they won a state senate majority was in the 1990 election. (They split the chamber 15-15 in 2000.)
That 1964 election was the last time Arizona Democrats had a trifecta. With Democrat Katie Hobbs as governor, the party may accomplish the feat for the first time in 60 years.
5 Key Pickup Opportunities for Republicans
Republicans have a prime chance to take a majority of the US Senate. It will be especially imperative for them to gain that foothold if Democrats take control of the US House.
Ohio — US Senate
If any US Senate race is “the one” to watch, it’s in Ohio. It’s the one race where all six of the aforementioned election forecasters rate it as a toss-up. Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is facing off against Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown first won the seat in the 2006 election by 12.4 points, 6.0 points in 2012, and 6.8 points in 2018.
But this is likely to be his toughest matchup yet. Ohio has become increasingly Republican over the past 15 years or so. In 2010, the party took a state house majority and took a majority of the US House delegation with 13 of the 18 seats, and John Kasich defeated Democratic incumbent Governor Ted Strickland. Since then, Republican governor candidates have blown out the Democratic candidate in a couple instances, (25.0 point margin in 2022 and 30.6 point margin in 2014). Republicans have also expanded both their state house and state senate majorities, and they’ve maintained a majority of the US House delegation.
Now Brown is currently the only Democrat in an Ohio statewide partisan elected office. While Republicans have a lot of pickup opportunities for the US Senate, it’d be a big blow for their efforts if they don’t win Ohio’s seat, especially when the state is projected to be solidly/safely Republican for president.
Montana — US Senate
Apart from West Virginia’s seat, Montana is the most likely Democratic-held US Senate seat to flip to the Republican Party. Democrat Jon Tester is facing off against Republican Tim Sheehy. Tester is one of the longer-tenured current US Senators, first winning in 2006. While Montana Democrats haven’t been able to break into the US House for some time, Tester has won 3 elections for US Senate.
Tester is no stranger to competitive contests. He won by 0.9 points in 2006, 3.7 points in 2012, and 3.5 points in 2018. However, the six major forecasters in this article all see the race as favoring Sheehy — albeit ever so slightly. In fact, based on all the forecasters’ terminology for how likely a race will be won by a Democrat or Republican, each is one step away from calling it a toss-up. It’s far from a done deal, but Tester has quite the test in front of him. (I know, it was low-hanging fruit. I’m sorry.)
How this election plays out will also have a reciprocal effect on the aforementioned 1st District election, the seat currently held by Ryan Zinke. There are now 2 US House districts in Montana following redistricting, while it was previously just 1 seat, and as such, a large proportion of voters in Montana are going to be voting on both the 1st District and the US Senate.
Pennsylvania — 7th and 8th US House Districts
In the 7th District, incumbent Democrat Susan Wild is going up against Republican Ryan Mackenzie. Wild first won her seat in 2018, but her margin of victory has decreased each time: It was 10.0 points in 2018, 3.8 points in 2020, and 2.0 points in 2022.
In the 8th District, incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright is facing off against Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. Like Wild, Cartwright first won his seat in 2018 and the margin of victory has gotten progressively smaller: It was 9.2 points in 2018, 3.6 points in 2020, and 2.4 points in 2022.
If Republicans hold onto their US House majority, it’s likely going to have to include winning these two seats. They are two of the most “gettable” seats for Republicans. While they still have other opportunities to keep control of the US House, it will be much more difficult if they do not take these two seats from Democrats.
This is another scenario where a contingent election for president would come into play. If Republicans win both of these seats, and the rest of Pennsylvania’s US House seats stayed with their same party, the delegation would be 10 Republicans and 7 Democrats. (So, even just one of them would be a big gain for Republicans here.) With a Republican majority, the state’s congressional delegation would undoubtedly cast a vote for Donald Trump.
Michigan — 7th and 8th US House Districts
These two contests are open seats: 7th District Representative Elissa Slotkin is running for US Senate and 8th District Representative Dan Kildee is retiring. Open seats, for the most part, inherently make a race more competitive than ones with an incumbent, as incumbents generally have an advantage in name recognition, resources, etc. simply by being in the seat already.
In the 7th District race, the two main candidates are former state legislators: Republican Tom Barrett and Democrat Curtis Hertel. Current incumbent Slotkin defeated Barrett in 2022 by 5.4 points.
In the 8th District race, the two main candidates are Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican Paul Junge. Current incumbent Kildee defeated Junge in 2022 by 10.3 points. Junge also ran against Slotkin (before redistricting changed the congressional district lines) in 2020 and lost by 3.6 points.
This is yet another scenario where a contingent election for president would come into play. If Republicans win both of these seats, and the rest of Michigan’s US House seats stayed with their same party, the delegation would be 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats. (So, even just one of them would be a big boost for Republicans.) With a Republican majority, the state’s congressional delegation would undoubtedly cast a vote for Donald Trump.
Michigan — State House
Similarly to Arizona, Michigan is a hotbed for political activity in 2024: It will be very competitive for president, US Senate, certain US House districts and the state house (the state senate does not have elections this year.) Yet while Arizona is a big opportunity for Democrats to make gains at both the state and federal level, Michigan is the same but for Republicans.
In 2010, Michigan Republicans — like Republicans did in many state legislative chambers — took a large majority of the state house (from a 47-63 disadvantage to a 63-47 advantage). In 2022, Michigan Democrats finally took the majority back (56-54).
How Michigan votes for president, US Senate, and the competitive US House districts is undoubtedly going to impact state legislative races. Split-ticket voting is less common in recent years, but it is possible, that Republicans take back the Michigan State House yet lose one or several of the state’s key congressional races.
There are plenty of other competitive contests to look for in the 2024 election, but these are some of the most tight races this year. Be prepared to see some huge news coming out of these contests when all is said and done.
