2023’s Big Political Storylines — and How Those Segue into 2024
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Another year has come and gone. While 2023 didn’t get the media coverage that a presidential or midterm election year gets, there were still plenty of big stories and changes to the political landscape that occurred. Now with the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, attention to what’s happening in politics will be amplified exponentially. Let’s take a look at some of the top storylines of 2023 and how those general storylines shape up in 2024.
(Attempts at) Removals from Office and Candidacy Lists
2023 (Attempts at) Removals/Preventions
George Santos became only the sixth member in the history of the U.S. House (third since the Civil War) to be expelled from the chamber following multiple indictments including money laundering, wire fraud, and making false statements to the Federal Election Commission. And while far below the seriousness of expulsion, censures have become a bit more common in recent years. The two latest censures came in the last two months: Rashida Tlaib (November) and Jamaal Bowman (December).
Santos’ expulsion from office would have been the biggest story when it comes to removing an officeholder or a candidate from running — if it weren’t for the bombshell decisions in December in two states at the end of 2023 that declared former President Donald Trump ineligible to run for president in 2024. But there were also instances where efforts to bar Trump from the ballot failed. Each of these cases involved the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause.
- Colorado and Maine are the two states (so far, at least) that have declared Trump ineligible for the ballot (for now, at least). The Colorado Supreme Court, in a narrow 4–3 ruling, became the first state to do so. Then in Maine, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows also declared him ineligible. Whether those rulings hold up to appeals from Trump’s team and other Republicans remains to be seen.
- On the flip side, Trump has not been barred from running in 2024 in Michigan and Wisconsin. The Michigan Supreme Court, despite being a Democratic majority, declined to do so after the Michigan Court of Appeals ruled Trump could remain on the ballot and that the Michigan Secretary of State did not have the legal authority to remove him from candidacy. Only a day or two later, the Wisconsin Elections Commission declined to review a complaint against Trump.
2024 (Attempts at) Removals/Preventions
Despite the ever-increasing acrimony in Washington, D.C., it’s hard to believe another expulsion from either the U.S. House or U.S. Senate could happen in 2024 simply due to its rarity, but politics is full of surprises. Undoubtedly, however, other states will consider efforts to remove Trump from the 2024 ballot. It’s uncharted territory in U.S. political history, at least when it comes to the Republican and Democratic Parties. (Third parties and non-party candidates have had plenty of their own issues with ballot access.)
Here are some more things to consider when it comes to Trump’s current and potential disqualifications from other states’ ballots.
- The ultimate decision on whether Trump can constitutionally be banned from states’ candidate lists is almost definitely going to be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. SCOTUS historically has demonstrated a reluctance to get involved in any case that might be considered a “political question,” though whether SCOTUS feels that applies to Trump’s case is up in the air. But for now, efforts to block Trump from candidacy are underway in other states including Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Texas.
- Four Democratic and three Republican Secretary of State seats are up for election in 2024. States vary in how much involvement their secretaries of state have in the election process, but the question of whether Trump should be allowed to run in 2024 could have an impact on these races if any of the incumbents get involved with efforts to ban him (or don’t). Voters may base their decisions in large part on whether secretary of state candidates do or don’t support barring Trump.
- Other officeholders and candidates that could be indirectly impacted also include those for state supreme courts. Such elections are happening for 82 seats in 33 states. In Colorado, for instance, three of those justices are up for retention in 2024 — Maria Berkenkotter, Brian Boatright, and Monica Márquez. Márquez was part of the majority that ruled Trump was disqualified from the ballot, while Berkenkotter and Boatright dissented. Whether voters choose to retain them could be influenced considerably by whether they supported the decision to bar Trump from Colorado’s 2024 ballot.
State Executive Races
2023 State Executives
Few states had state-level elections in 2023, but there were several state executive elections (e.g., governor, attorney general, secretary of state) that were noteworthy for various reasons. These include the following:
- Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D), despite speculation that his seat was vulnerable, hung on to his seat with 52.53% of the vote in an otherwise solidly Republican state. Despite Democrats winning three of the last four gubernatorial elections in the state, however (Andy’s father, Steven Beshear, served two consecutive terms in that time frame), it hasn’t translated into success for Kentucky Democrats in presidential elections.
- The governor’s office in Louisiana flipped from blue to red as Jeff Landry (R) takes over from term-limited John Bel Edwards (D). This appears to be the culmination of the Republican shift of Louisiana politics — the state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 and the state legislature has been Republican since the 2011 elections.
2024 State Executives
Most state executive elections happen in midterm elections, so there won’t be a ton of them in 2024 compared to 2026, but there are still plenty that are happening. And there could be some seat-flipping fireworks in store. Here are some quick stats on the numbers and some particular races to watch out for.
- There are 11 states holding 2024 elections for governor, 9 for lieutenant governor, 10 for attorney general, 7 for secretary of state. Nine states will also be holding elections for other state executive offices such as auditor and insurance commissioner. The states holding state executive elections in 2024 are Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia.
- New Hampshire’s governor’s race will be one of the marquee matchups. The incumbent governor, Chris Sununu (R), is not running for re-election. Sununu has won every governor’s race since 2016 (New Hampshire governor’s terms last only two years), but Republicans not having the incumbent advantage this time around has given more opportunity for Democrats to take the seat back. This is one of the reasons that the major race ratings organizations of Inside Elections, Cook Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are hedging on their predictions. As of January 1, 2024, Inside Elections, Sabato, and Cook all rate the seat as a “toss-up.”
- North Carolina’s governor’s race may also be a tight race, but unlike Republicans and New Hampshire, the seat in the Tar Heel State is held by Democrat Roy Cooper. Cooper is also not running for re-election, but that is because he is term-limited. While he won two terms for governor and was the state’s elected attorney general before that, the state has voted Republican in presidential elections since 2012. On the other hand, as of January 1, 2024, there are almost 200,000 more voters registered as Democrats than as Republicans. These two aspects are likely part of the reasoning as to why Inside Elections and Sabato rate the North Carolina governor’s race as a “toss-up” and Cook rates it as “lean D” (as of January 1, 2024).
State Legislative Races
2023 State Legislatures
Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia held elections for both their state houses and state senates (not necessarily all state senate seats were up for election, though). The key story here is easily the Virginia State House, which is the only one that flipped party control. Virginia House Democrats went from a 48–46 minority (due to six vacancies) to a 51–49 majority. Competition for partisan control of the chamber has been highly competitive in recent years.
Here are the party divides for the Virginia House following the chamber’s elections since 2015, which show 2023 was a continuation of the volatility:
- 2015: Republican majority 66–34
- 2017: Republican majority 51–49
- 2019: Democratic majority 55–45
- 2021: Republican majority 52–48
- 2023: Democratic majority 51–49
2024 State Legislatures
But in 2024, there are considerably more states having elections than this past year, although they aren’t necessarily all competitive. Some state legislative chambers are firmly in Democratic control while some are firmly in Republican control. That said, 85 legislative chambers across 44 states have elections for some or all of their seats.
Republicans have controlled more state legislative chambers than Democrats since 2010, but could Democrats cut into that lead in 2024? Or will Republicans expand their lead? Here are some examples of legislative chambers that have relatively high potential to flip from one party to the other:
- Arizona’s House and Senate are both very much in play for Democrats to take control of — something that they have not done for many years. Apart from getting a split senate in 2000, Democrats have not controlled the senate since 1990 or the house since 1960. With Katie Hobbs taking the governor’s office back for Democrats in 2022, momentum could be on Democrats’ side in Arizona.
- Alaska’s state politics are rather bizarre compared to most states, and the division of power in Alaska’s state legislature is a testament to that. Despite Republican majorities in both chambers, the house and senate each have a bipartisan power-sharing agreement. Whether those continue to hold after the 2024 elections remain to be seen, but the state senate currently has a razor-thin 11–9 Republican majority.
- Michigan’s House and Senate are also tight. While Democrats took back the majority (56–54) in the house in the 2022 elections, two vacancies have now evened out the number of Republicans and Democrats in the chamber. The Senate also flipped Democratic in 2022, though it still has its 20–18 majority.
- Minnesota’s House and Senate might also be up for grabs with 70–64 and 34–33 Democratic majorities, respectively. Republicans have had recent control of the chambers: the senate in 2020 and the house in 2016.
Ballot Measures
2023 Ballot Measures
In 2023, 33 of the 41 statewide ballot measures passed. But the biggest story in ballot measures in 2023 was easily the victory of Ohio Issue 1, which enshrined abortion access to the state’s constitution despite the red leanings of the state.
Yet there were other major ballot measures that passed — and failed. Here are some examples:
- Ohio had a different Issue 1 that was voted on in August (the abortion one was in November), which would have raised the threshold for passing constitutional amendments from 50%+1 to 60% of the vote. Only 42.89% of voters supported the measure, well short of the number needed for passage. If the threshold was increased to 60%, the abortion measure would not have passed as it only had 56.78% of the vote.
- Oklahoma and Ohio had recreational marijuana measures on the ballot, but with two very different results. Oklahoma State Question 820 failed with only 38.33% of the vote, while Ohio Issue 2 passed with 57.19% of the vote. If Ohio had increased its threshold for passing constitutional amendments to 60%, Ohio Issue 2 would’ve fallen short.
- Wisconsin Question 2 passed with flying colors (67.57%), revising the state’s conditions for setting cash bail for people accused of violent crimes.
- Texas Proposition 9 was considerably successful with 83.73% of the vote approving the measure. Proposition 9 authorizes the state legislature to “provide a cost-of-living adjustment to certain annuitants of the Teacher Retirement System of Texas.”
2024 Ballot Measures
There is still some time before the full list of statewide ballot measures that will be voted on shakes out. States have wildly varying stipulations for what is needed to get a measure on the ballot and the timeframes for doing so. Measures are in varying stages of the process. Some may still be gathering petitions; others may be getting reviewed for whether they meet legal requirements (such as the single-subject rule, if a state has that); and yet others may already be approved for the ballot.
Here are some key 2024 ballot measures to look out for, though some may only have the potential to be on the ballot.
- The success of Ohio Issue 1 (the abortion one) has given pro-choice activists a big confidence boost. Now there are currently 14 states that may put their own abortion measures on their ballots. Maryland and New York have already done so.
- LGBT-related ballot measures may also find themselves on ballots — though none of them are officially there yet — and they are in two states that are polar opposites in terms of partisanship. California has four of them and Missouri has three of them. Changes they would make include prohibiting transgender females from competing in female sports and revising the statutory definition of sex. New York’s Equal Protection of Law Amendment is also LGBT-related, though it encompasses a much wider group of people than that.
- Florida Amendment 1 would make the state’s nonpartisan school board offices a partisan office instead. Unlike amendments like Ohio Issue 1, however, this is legislatively-referred instead of citizen-initiated.
Onward Into 2024
The apex of the 2024 election cycle is just around the corner (sort of). It’s full-speed ahead for campaigns for all sorts of offices at the federal, state, and local levels. While this article discussed many of the most prominent storylines, there are still plenty of other important ones. Some will even be a surprise. There’s a lot of uncertainty with hotly contested races, upsets in the making, and Trump’s 2024 candidacy. But one thing is more certain than anything else…
Buckle up. It’s going to be a wild ride.
